506
FXUS64 KFWD 190600
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
100 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH TEXAS WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15
MPH.
- RAIN CHANCES RETURN FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND
WIND THREATS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PORTION OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
A STOUT UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER REMAINS ANCHORED
OVERHEAD WHICH WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF NEAR-RECORD
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100. AGGRESSIVE MIXING OF
DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR OR EVEN A TOUCH BELOW AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TODAY, WITH NO HEAT HEADLINES NECESSARY. THE MAIN STORY THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WILL BE AN ELEVATED WILDFIRE THREAT, AS LOW
HUMIDITY COMBINES WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH. WITH DRY FUELS FROM WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS, EXTRA
CARE SHOULD BE TAKEN TO AVOID SOURCES OF WILDFIRE IGNITION. A
GRASS FIRE DANGER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THIS
CONCERN. TODAY COULD ALSO BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY FOR DFW AND
WACO TO ADD TO THE 100 DEGREE TALLY THIS YEAR, AS INCREASING CLOUD
COVER, CONVECTIVE CHANCES, AND THE ARRIVAL OF A WEAK FRONT ARE
LIKELY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW/MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
BY SUNDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LEAD TO A BREAKDOWN AND SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT OF THE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR CONVECTIVE CHANCES
TO END THE WEEKEND AND BEGIN THE WORKWEEK. SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS
COULD ENTER PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING
AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE ARRIVES. HOWEVER, GREATER
CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS TOWARDS
THE RED RIVER AND RESULTS IN SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION
WITHIN A VERY UNSTABLE AND MODESTLY SHEARED PREFRONTAL WARM
SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA
DURING PEAK HEATING ROUGHLY FROM THE BIG COUNTRY NORTHEASTWARD
INTO TEXOMA, AND WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD ALONG
OUTFLOWS. SOME LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS OR SMALL
LINEAR SEGMENTS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH ATTENDANT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL/WIND HAZARDS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS IN NORTH TEXAS.
OVERALL, CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY 30-50% AT
THIS TIME. WHILE INTENSITY OF CONVECTION WILL TEND TO WANE THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING, SHORTWAVE ASCENT ALONG WITH
LIFT FROM THE NEARBY FRONT COULD SUSTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ON MONDAY
WITH AID FROM DIURNAL HEATING ALONG THE RESIDUAL WEAK FRONTAL
ZONE AS WELL AS ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PRESENT FROM
SUNDAY EVENING'S CONVECTION. IT SEEMS MOST LIKELY THAT THIS WOULD
BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF I-20, ALTHOUGH THE LOCATIONS OF THESE
BOUNDARIES WILL NOT BE KNOWN WITH ANY CERTAINTY UNTIL MONDAY
MORNING. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE LOW/MID 90S NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARIES.
A SECONDARY PLAINS/MIDWEST TROUGH WILL SEND A REINFORCING FRONT
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH TEXAS BY TUESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BE
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR, BUT WILL ADVECT LOWER
DEWPOINTS INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND END
OF THE WORKWEEK, BUT MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE
OFFICIALLY ENTER ASTRONOMICAL FALL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SSE WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS AROUND 7 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED, ALONG
WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS LATER TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 98 77 99 78 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 97 74 98 75 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 98 72 98 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 97 75 99 76 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 97 74 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 98 78 100 79 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 97 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 72 97 73 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 95 72 99 73 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 97 72 100 73 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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