713
FXUS64 KFWD 211043
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
543 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OF 20-30% WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A WEAK COLD FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
STRONG DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
ASCENT FROM A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BROUGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, AND
MODEST LIFT FROM THIS FEATURE MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
PRECIP THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS NORTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING DRAPED THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE AND
SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA, BUT THEY'LL MAKE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS INTO NORTH
TEXAS LATER TODAY RESULTING IN A SUBTLE NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL TEMPERATURE CONTRAST ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY HOWEVER, AND HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE 90S ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PEAK HEATING HOURS AS STRONG DESTABILIZATION OCCURS, AND
COVERAGE SHOULD BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE CONVERGENT SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS AS WELL AS ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL IN PLACE
FROM CONVECTION ON SUNDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL BE SCATTERED AND
DISORGANIZED, BUT THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH
SMALL HAIL. POPS OF 20-30% WILL BE BROAD-BRUSHED ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION, WITH ANY ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO PROGRESS OFF TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
DRIER NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT LOWER DEWPOINTS
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE MOIST AXIS PIVOTS INTO
WEST TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONVECTIVE CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY
SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF THE CWA, BUT LOW POPS OF 20% OR LESS WILL BE
CARRIED ROUGHLY ALONG/WEST OF HIGHWAY 281 THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH THE ARRIVAL OF SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR, A RETURN
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE REGION SUBSIDENT AND
RAIN-FREE HEADING INTO THE MIDWEEK PERIOD WHILE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN SEP 20 2026
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST FROM MIDWEEK ONWARD AS
BUILDING HEIGHTS ALOFT MAINTAIN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WHILE
LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE LIMITS RAIN CHANCES. A REINFORCING PUSH OF
DRY AIR IN EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN LOW DEWPOINTS IN THE
50S AND LOWER 60S, AND THIS WILL RESULT IN LESS OPPRESSIVE LATE
SEASON HEAT WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR OR BELOW AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL STILL BE IN THE 90S FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF ASTRONOMICAL FALL. ANOTHER BREAKDOWN
OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND WEAK FRONTAL INTRUSION COULD OCCUR SOMETIME
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE THE NEXT
MENTIONABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CDT MON SEP 21 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE AREA MAINLY FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WHICH MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT ANY OF THE TAF SITES. A SHORT WINDOW OF
VCTS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED TO ADVERTISE THIS POTENTIAL, AND
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS FROM NEARBY STORMS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ABRUPT
WIND SHIFTS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. OTHERWISE, WIND SPEEDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAYTIME BEFORE
EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A MORE UNIFORM NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION BY
LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 97 75 95 75 / 30 20 10 10
WACO 97 74 97 74 / 30 30 20 10
PARIS 95 71 95 71 / 40 10 0 0
DENTON 97 71 94 70 / 30 20 10 10
MCKINNEY 95 70 94 70 / 30 20 10 10
DALLAS 98 76 96 76 / 30 20 10 10
TERRELL 97 72 96 73 / 40 20 10 10
CORSICANA 96 73 96 74 / 40 30 10 10
TEMPLE 98 72 98 73 / 30 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 98 68 94 69 / 30 20 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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