954
FXUS64 KFWD 221754
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1254 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN MAY RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
RECENT RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING
BOUNDARY MOVING TOWARDS CENTRAL TX, STILL EXPECTED TO SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. GIVEN THERE'S STILL SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WARM ADVECTION IN THE AREA, SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP
AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAIN,
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD THIS ACTIVITY.
NEVERTHELESS, COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN CHANCES, TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL (BUT NOT AS HOT AS LAST WEEK) WITH HIGHS MAINLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.
THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY LINGER SOMEWHERE ALONG OUR SOUTHERN
CENTRAL TX COUNTIES TOMORROW, WHICH WILL HELP PROMOTE ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A GOOD AMOUNT
OF UNCERTAINTY ON TOMORROW'S RAIN CHANCES GIVEN THIS ACTIVITY WILL
HAVE TO FIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS PROVIDED BY
THE EXPANDING RIDGE. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY SIMILAR
TO TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.
DAILY RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF WEST TX AND THE
TX PANHANDLE BUT FOR OUR AREA, THE FORECAST REMAINS MOSTLY DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S, BUT A FEW LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME UPPER 90S.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL, KEEPING THE HUMIDITY IN CHECK THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, AND
WARM TEMPERATURES MAY INCREASE THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS
THE REGION DESPITE FAIRLY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS.
SUNDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK: A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED
AS A TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST EXPANDS EASTWARDS AND SENDS A FEW
DISTURBANCES TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE POTENTIAL FOR US TO
SEE SOME RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL DEPEND ON THEIR
TRACKS AND HOW MUCH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. SOME OF
THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE KEEP THE BEST LIFT WELL TO OUR NORTH KEEPING
US RAIN-FREE AND OTHERS SHOW AT LEAST SOME LOW POPS OVER OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY PERIOD. BEYOND THAT, THERE IS
SOME CONSENSUS AMONG GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT WAVE TO APPROACH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BY MID WEEK COULD BE OUR NEXT SHOT FOR DECENT RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT TUE SEP 22 2026
VFR AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE
CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL TX. WHILE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR AFTER 20-21Z,
CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION
IT AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES AT THIS TIME. EVEN IN CENTRAL TEXAS,
THE PROBABILITY OF ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL (I.E. ACT) IS ONLY
AROUND 20%, WHICH IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP. TRENDS
WILL BE CONTINUE TO WATCHED AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
NEEDED.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 8 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT BEFORE THEY VEER MORE TO THE
EAST TOMORROW. ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCES (20%)
WILL REMAIN WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 96 76 95 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 75 97 75 96 / 10 10 10 0
PARIS 71 94 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 72 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 71 95 70 94 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 76 97 75 96 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 73 96 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 96 73 94 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 73 98 74 98 / 20 20 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 70 95 72 95 / 10 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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