718
FXUS64 KFWD 231809
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
109 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, THE BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. ANY RAIN OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN OR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO A QUIET AND
MILD NIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE REMAINING BOUNDARY
LINGERS. OTHERWISE, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY,
KEEPING THE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND
FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY,
PUSHING WARMER AIR AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. WHILE
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER, DEEPER
SHORTWAVE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO
ARRIVE ALONGSIDE THE RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TIME WILL TELL IF
THIS DELIVERS OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL WEATHER!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS AOB 10 KTS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TX AND THE BIG COUNTRY REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. A BRIEF SHOWER/STORM MAY APPROACH THE VICINITY OF
KACT BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING, BUT CHANCES REMAIN AROUND
20% OR LESS TO - TOO LOW TO WARRANT A PROB30 GROUP.
ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
MAINLY WEST AND SOUTH OF THE TAF SITES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 95 72 94 / 10 0 0 0
WACO 76 96 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 67 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 74 95 70 93 / 10 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 72 94 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 76 95 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
TERRELL 72 95 67 93 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 74 95 68 93 / 10 0 0 0
TEMPLE 74 97 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 73 95 69 94 / 10 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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