024
FXUS64 KFWD 232306
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
606 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN THURSDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
- AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE
RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO WILL PERSIST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WANING IN COVERAGE AS WE MOVE BEYOND SUNSET. A
FEW MORE ROBUST CELLS HAVE PRODUCED SOME GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS, BUT
MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS BEEN RELATIVELY TAME. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL TO COME TO AN END LATER TONIGHT, THOUGH WILL CARRY
LOW 20% POPS IN OUR NORTHWEST THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST CONTINUES TO SWING NORTHEAST. OUTSIDE OF
THOSE LOW CHANCES, EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. NO
MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST OUTSIDE OF MASSAGING POPS
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, SO THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION BELOW
REMAINS VALID.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED
OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY LINGERS
OVER OUR WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES, WHICH WILL SUPPORT A
FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY, THE BEST COVERAGE WILL REMAIN FAR TO OUR WEST,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
UPPER RIDGE. ANY RAIN OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER OUR WESTERN OR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED, WITH THE MAIN THREATS
BEING OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.
THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO A QUIET AND
MILD NIGHT.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY,
MAINLY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE THE REMAINING BOUNDARY
LINGERS. OTHERWISE, WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES WARM AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY: EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY,
KEEPING THE HUMIDITY VALUES IN CHECK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND AND
FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WEST COAST.
AT THE SURFACE, THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY,
PUSHING WARMER AIR AND SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION.
HIGHS WILL LIKELY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA.
SUNDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK: THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF UPPER-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON SUNDAY. WHILE
THE BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A STRONGER, DEEPER
SHORTWAVE DURING THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP SUPPORT MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY ALSO
ARRIVE ALONGSIDE THE RAIN AND NORTHERLY WINDS. TIME WILL TELL IF
THIS DELIVERS OUR FIRST TASTE OF FALL WEATHER!
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT WED SEP 23 2026
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ACT AND
FTW/GKY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE ALL ACTIVITY WANES
WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH PARKER AND TARRANT COUNTIES MAY TEMPORARILY SHIFT
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT THE WESTERN D10 SITES, BUT DIRECTIONS
WILL OVERALL BE E-ESE. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END AT THE
AIRPORTS BY ~02Z, WITH THE REST OF THE NIGHT REMAINING DRY. E TO
ESE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH DIURNAL
CUMULUS AND STREAMING CIRRUS ANTICIPATED. THE TAF SITES SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH ANY SHOWERS/STORMS REMAINING
IN THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 76 95 72 / 10 10 0 0
WACO 95 76 96 71 / 20 10 0 0
PARIS 91 67 90 64 / 10 0 0 0
DENTON 97 74 95 70 / 10 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 95 72 94 67 / 10 0 0 0
DALLAS 98 76 95 71 / 10 10 0 0
TERRELL 97 72 95 67 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 74 95 68 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 99 74 97 71 / 20 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 96 73 95 69 / 20 20 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...PRATER
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