894
FXUS64 KFWD 240639
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
139 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD FRONT AND SOME RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING DURING THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 90S AND MORNING LOWS IN THE 70S. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
THERE IS ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS AND INTO THE
BIG COUNTRY. ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM AGAINST CONTINUED BUILDING OF
RIDGING AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WILL BE SHORT- LIVED, WITH GUSTY WINDS,
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS.
AFTER SUNSET, STORM COVERAGE WILL QUICKLY END, WITH A CALM AND MILD
NIGHT ON TAP.
FRIDAY, WARM TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG INTRUSION OF LOW-LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL RESULT IN AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
RH VALUES IN THE 25-35% RANGE WILL PROMOTE FUEL DRYING, AND WHILE
OUR EASTERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CALM, GRASS FIRES DUE TO
DRAGGING TOW CHAINS AND OTHER VARIOUS SPARKING SOURCES ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S WITH THE TYPICAL DIURNAL CU
CLOUD FIELD DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY, LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM EASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY THANKS TO A SOUTHWARD
RETREAT OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS AND THE INFLUENCE OF A CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 60S. A RICHER PLUME
OF MOISTURE TO OUR WEST ASSOCIATED WITH MULTIPLE DAYS OF NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS RAINFALL WILL ALSO PIVOT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD,
AND THIS MAY ALLOW LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES TO RESUME AS DISSIPATING
ACTIVITY ENCROACHES ON OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT, A SUBTLE DISTURBANCE WITHIN FAIRLY WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE CONVECTION
UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST AREA IN OKLAHOMA. RECENT GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER OR COMPLEX TO DRIFT TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS BY SUNDAY MORNING,
AND POPS OF 20% WILL BE INCLUDED TO ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO ADVANCE INTO NORTH TEXAS. IN ADDITION, ONE OR
MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ANY SUCH CONVECTION MAY PUSH
SOUTHWARD HEADING INTO THE DAYTIME, AND WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
DISPLACED SUFFICIENTLY FAR SOUTH, REDEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WOULD BE POSSIBLE WITH AID FROM
DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION LATER IN THE DAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABLE TO
CLIMB SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW/MID 90S HIGHS AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES NEAR THE CENTURY MARK PREVAILING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN SHIFT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST DECENT FRONTAL
PASSAGE OF THE SEASON HEADING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SUCH A
SOLUTION WOULD OFFER RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THIS BOUNDARY, AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FAVORS
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND
LOWS IN THE 60S DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 AM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A CANOPY OF SCT/BKN
CIRRUS CONTINUING TO STREAM OVERHEAD. WINDS HAVE RECOVERED TO A
MORE UNIFORM ESE DIRECTION FOLLOWING BEING INTERRUPTED BY
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS YESTERDAY EVENING, AND A LIGHT ESE WIND OF 10
KTS OR LESS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED CONVECTION IS FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
THE BIG COUNTRY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEST OF THE AIRPORTS AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 96 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 90 64 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 95 70 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 94 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 95 71 94 74 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 95 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 97 71 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 95 69 94 70 / 10 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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