631
FXUS64 KFWD 241904
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
204 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH
GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
A BLANKET OF MID-TO-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE REGION THE REST OF TODAY. DESPITE THE GOOD AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVERAGE, THIS AFTERNOON'S HIGHS WILL STILL REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL PARKED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE, WHILE A PERSISTENT MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO BE FETCHED
OVER NM, TX/OK PANHANDLES AND WEST TX. SIMILAR TO THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS, AFTERNOON SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP WEST OF OUR
REGION WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES. THE
MAIN HAZARDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE GUSTY WINDS, BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
AND OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE OUT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY REACHING AREAS AS FAR EAST AS THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 10%.
LATEST CAMS STILL SHOW THE BEST CONVERGENCE AND ENVIRONMENT
WEST/NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. ANY RAIN OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET, LEADING TO A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
60S TO LOW 70S.
A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST WILL APPROACH THE REGION AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN. A 10-20% CHANCE FOR RAIN/STORMS HAS
BEEN INTRODUCED FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION EVOLVES FRIDAY NIGHT, WE COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS LINGER ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES AND THE RED RIVER DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE 90S.
BEFORE WE TRANSITION TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK,
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TAKE PLACE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT TO OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ANOTHER DECAYING COMPLEX TO REACH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FOR NOW, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOW A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. OTHERWISE, EXPECT ANOTHER SEASONABLY WARM DAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
FOR NEXT WEEK, LARGE SCALE TROUGHING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OF U.S. AND WILL BRING A SERIES OF EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. BOTH
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER
AND DEEPER SYSTEM DURING THE MID AND LATE WEEK WHICH COULD BRING
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. AS EXPECTED,
THERE'S STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES IN THE PROGRESSION AND TRACK OF
THIS SYSTEM. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM
VS. A MORE SLOW MOVING SCENARIO DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS
OF THE SCENARIO, A FEATURE NOTED BY MOST GUIDANCE IS THE
INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL ACTIVITY OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS WILL HELP SUPPORT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
AND PERHAPS PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, SIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES MAY
ALSO ARRIVE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 200 PM CDT THU SEP 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS EXPECTED.
WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS
UNDER A SCT/BKN DECK OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. MORE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY WEST
OF I-35 TOWARDS WEST TX AND THE HILL COUNTRY. WHILE WE CAN'T RULE
OUT A BRIEF SHOWER TO DEVELOP NEAR THE VICINITY OF FTW OR AFW,
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10% OR LESS. TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WATCHED AND THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED AS
NEEDED.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 96 72 95 72 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 96 70 96 70 / 10 0 0 0
PARIS 91 63 92 67 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 94 68 95 70 / 10 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 95 66 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 97 72 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 95 65 94 68 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 95 68 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 98 72 98 69 / 10 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 95 70 97 69 / 20 10 20 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SANCHEZ
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...SANCHEZ
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