809
FXUS64 KFWD 250625
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
125 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS AHEAD, WITH TODAY'S WEATHER
CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR MOST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR REGION TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING ANY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM, SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS, WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, EXPECT ANY RAIN
OR STORMS TO QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET
AND MILD, AS LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THERE IS ALSO AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT TODAY, MAINLY FOR SITES
EAST OF I-35, AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES (25-35%) WITH OUR EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, GRASS FIRES AS A RESULT OF
SPARKING ACTIONS (DRAGGING TOW CHAINS, TOSSING LIT CIGARETTES)
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DRY FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE. REMEMBER TO
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS, AND TO SECURE ALL SPARK
SOURCES!
SATURDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF OUR PATTERN
SHIFT COMING NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS PLAGUED US THUS FAR BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, BRINGING A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
AGAIN REGION WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL
STORMS CAN REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE
WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN UNDERGOING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LOCALLY, ALLOWING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASING MOISTURE, INCLUDING
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, MAY SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EAST MORE QUICKLY, WHILE A SLOWER EVOLUTION COULD
PROLONG RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAN HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE PERSISTENT 90
DEGREE HEAT LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE CLOUDS, RAIN, AND POST-FRONTAL AIR ALLOW HIGHS TO FALL
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
APPEAR INCREASINGLY PLAUSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
CONCERNS...NONE
EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS TAF CYCLE. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN IN
THE VFR CATEGORY AS MOST CLOUDS WILL REMAIN AOA FL250. OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION,
CLOSER TO 7K FEET.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE, LEADING TO
SHOWERS AND STORMS AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST WELL
AWAY FROM THE REGION, GENERATING NO IMPACTS TO THE D10 OR CENTRAL
TEXAS AIRSPACE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 72 95 75 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 96 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 92 67 93 68 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 95 70 96 73 / 10 0 10 10
MCKINNEY 94 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 96 72 96 76 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 94 68 94 71 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 93 68 93 72 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 98 69 96 71 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 97 69 97 70 / 20 10 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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