676
FXUS64 KFWD 251055
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS
POSSIBLE.
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
THREAT ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE NEXT WEEK WITH A
COLD FRONT AND WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES ARRIVING DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
A QUIET START TO THE WEEKEND IS AHEAD, WITH TODAY'S WEATHER
CONTINUING THE PATTERN OF THE LAST FEW DAYS. ABOVE-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST, WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID
90S FOR MOST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT OVER OUR REGION TODAY AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT, KEEPING ANY CHANCES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WELL INTO OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. THE
MAIN THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN FORM, SIMILAR TO THE LAST FEW
DAYS, WILL BE GUSTY WINDS, OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING, AND BRIEF
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST LIKE YESTERDAY, EXPECT ANY RAIN
OR STORMS TO QUICKLY DIE OFF AFTER SUNSET. TONIGHT WILL BE QUIET
AND MILD, AS LOWS FALL TO THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.
THERE IS ALSO AN ELEVATED FIRE THREAT TODAY, MAINLY FOR SITES
EAST OF I-35, AS A STRONG LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR INTRUSION WILL
PROMOTE LOW RH VALUES (25-35%) WITH OUR EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW.
WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT, GRASS FIRES AS A RESULT OF
SPARKING ACTIONS (DRAGGING TOW CHAINS, TOSSING LIT CIGARETTES)
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH DRY FUELS ALREADY IN PLACE. REMEMBER TO
CONTINUE TO FOLLOW LOCAL BURN BANS, AND TO SECURE ALL SPARK
SOURCES!
SATURDAY, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE FIRST SIGNS OF OUR PATTERN
SHIFT COMING NEXT WEEK, AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE THAT HAS PLAGUED US THUS FAR BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN.
LOWER HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO OUR WEST
WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION, BRINGING A LOW (10-20%) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE MID-90S
AGAIN REGION WIDE.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
ANY CONVECTIVE COMPLEX APPROACHING FROM OKLAHOMA SATURDAY NIGHT
MAY LINGER INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THE
EVENTUAL PLACEMENT OF OUTFLOW WILL DETERMINE WHETHER ADDITIONAL
STORMS CAN REDEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST. OTHERWISE, SUNDAY WILL REMAIN QUITE
WARM WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.
THE LARGER-SCALE PATTERN WILL BEGIN UNDERGOING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
TRANSITION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES EJECT INTO THE PLAINS.
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN LOCALLY, ALLOWING DEEPER GULF
MOISTURE TO RETURN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BEGIN INCREASING MONDAY NIGHT, BUT THE BETTER
OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING APPROACHES
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. INCREASING MOISTURE, INCLUDING
CONTRIBUTIONS FROM TROPICAL MOISTURE ORIGINATING OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC, MAY SUPPORT EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH, AS WELL AS THE EVOLUTION OF
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY. A FASTER SOLUTION WOULD SHIFT THE
HEAVIEST RAIN EAST MORE QUICKLY, WHILE A SLOWER EVOLUTION COULD
PROLONG RAIN CHANCES INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. REGARDLESS,
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A PERIOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAINFALL THAN HAS OCCURRED RECENTLY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND ACCORDINGLY, WITH THE PERSISTENT 90
DEGREE HEAT LIKELY CONTINUING THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK
BEFORE CLOUDS, RAIN, AND POST-FRONTAL AIR ALLOW HIGHS TO FALL
CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS. HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
APPEAR INCREASINGLY PLAUSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CDT FRI SEP 25 2026
VFR AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT ALL TAF SITES TODAY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. NO MAJOR
WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TODAY, HOWEVER, THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, MISSING THE D10
AIRSPACE. AT MOST, EXPECT PERIODS OF BKN SKIES AOA FL250.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 72 94 74 / 0 0 0 10
WACO 94 69 94 72 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 88 67 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 92 69 94 71 / 0 0 0 10
MCKINNEY 91 67 93 70 / 0 0 0 10
DALLAS 92 73 94 75 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 92 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 92 68 92 70 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 95 68 94 70 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 94 68 95 70 / 0 0 10 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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