939
FXUS64 KFWD 270802
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
302 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 90S.
- THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.
- CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN A WETTER PATTERN BEGINNING
MID NEXT WEEK WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND COOLER WEATHER
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY BUILDING WEST INTO NEW MEXICO,
BRIEFLY PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW
REGIME ALOFT. MEANWHILE, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MEANDERING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
TODAY, A WEAK JET STREAK MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES SHOULD
ACCENTUATE THE PRESSURE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
AND PUSH ITS AXIS EASTWARD, POSSIBLY INDUCING WEAK SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT BY THE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE HELP OF DIURNAL
HEATING, SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP MID-
AFTERNOON ALONG THE PRESSURE TROUGH OR ALONG ANY SUBTLE
BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM LAST NIGHT'S CONVECTION IN THE BIG
COUNTRY. THE SOUTHEASTERLY MEAN FLOW WILL GUIDE THESE STORMS INTO
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF I-35 HAVE A BETTER
CHANCE (30-40%) OF SEEING STORMS. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
IS LOW, A FEW STORMS MAY CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, AND SMALL HAIL.
THE CENTRAL PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL PIVOT AROUND THE BUILDING MID-
LEVEL RIDGE AND SHOULD MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA TONIGHT, WEAKENING AS
IT APPROACHES. LIFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD DEVELOP SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH TX OVERNIGHT BEFORE WINDING DOWN IN THE
MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE PETERS OUT. ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TX DURING PEAK HEATING ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES IN THE SHORT TERM WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR LATE SEPTEMBER, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AND LOWS IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT, BECOMING
BREEZY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TX.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
THE LONG-TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST FEATURES ONE MORE DAY OF
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER BEFORE AN
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TAKES PLACE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK. WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL ON
THE FORECAST AND WE WILL EXPAND MORE BELOW.
TUESDAY: EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY HOT DAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER OUR REGION AHEAD OF A LARGE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S WITH BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS. HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL ALSO
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE ACTUAL
TEMPERATURES. A SHOWER OR TWO MAY SNEAK INTO OUR SOUTHERN ZONES,
BUT MOST OF US WILL REMAIN RAIN-FREE BEFORE RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND: OUR ATTENTION REMAINS ON THE MID
TO LATE WEEK STORM SYSTEM, AS IT WILL ALIGN BETTER WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. OVERALL, THERE'S A GOOD
CONSENSUS THAT A CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND TIMING ALONG WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT, MULTIPLE WAVES OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ARE
FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONALLY, ABUNDANT
MOISTURE BOTH NEAR THE SURFACE (DEPICTED BY THE FORECAST PWS
GREATER THAN 1.5") AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE (ASSOCIATED
WITH THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE POLO) WILL HELP ENHANCE THE
CONVECTION OVER TEXAS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
AS A RESULT, WE COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. IT IS
STILL TO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION EACH DAY, BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE
REGION WILL RECEIVE RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-4" BEFORE THE SYSTEM
EXITS OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IF THE FORECAST UNDER THIS
PATTERN MATERIALIZES, WE COULD SEE SOME LOCATIONS RECEIVING
SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE
THE DETAILS IN THE UPCOMING DAYS, BUT IT'S IMPORTANT TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLOODING CONCERNS LATER IN THE WEEK.
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO ARRIVE ALONGSIDE THE RAIN
AND CLOUDS WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT SUN SEP 27 2026
D10: THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL (~30% CHANCE) TO IMPACT D10
AIRPORTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, PRIMARILY FROM 22-01Z.
STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FIRST DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF THE D10
TRACON, THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE METROPLEX; HOWEVER, THERE
IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR STORMS WILL MAKE IT. WESTERN D10
SITES HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF BEING IMPACTED. WE ARE MONITORING
TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE AND MAY CONSIDER REPLACING THE PROB30 WITH
VCTS AT METROPLEX SITES IN FUTURE TAF CYCLES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.
KACT: CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN WEST OF WACO,
BUT A FUTURE VCTS MENTION CANNOT BE RULED OUT DEPENDING ON TRENDS
IN GUIDANCE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 95 75 95 76 / 20 20 20 0
WACO 96 74 97 74 / 10 10 10 0
PARIS 92 69 91 70 / 20 20 20 0
DENTON 96 72 96 74 / 20 20 20 0
MCKINNEY 94 71 94 72 / 20 30 20 0
DALLAS 96 76 96 77 / 20 20 20 0
TERRELL 95 72 95 73 / 10 30 20 0
CORSICANA 94 73 95 73 / 0 10 10 0
TEMPLE 96 72 98 72 / 10 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 97 70 96 72 / 30 20 20 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....SANCHEZ
AVIATION...FENSKE
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