649
FXUS64 KFWD 281055
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
555 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, SOME
OF WHICH COULD PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
- A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH PERIODS
OF WIDESPREAD RAIN AND STORMS BEGINNING EARLY WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS INCREASINGLY LIKELY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH LATE WEEK, INCREASING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN REMAINS RATHER AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE CONUS
EARLY THIS MORNING. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WITH BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FARTHER SOUTH, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MEXICO
IS HELPING MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. MEANWHILE, A DEEP UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA COAST, WHILE HURRICANE POLO MOVES TOWARD NORTHWEST MEXICO.
THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH POLO HAS YET TO REACH OUR
AREA, BUT ITS EVENTUAL ARRIVAL WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FOR TODAY, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TRANSPORTING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WHILE
TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING COINCIDES WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. HIGH-RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS TWO CORRIDORS FOR DEVELOPMENT: ONE ACROSS
THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS, AND ANOTHER
ACROSS EAST TEXAS. A MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR 700 MB, SEPARATING DEEPER
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTH FROM DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH, MAY HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD FEATURE MLCAPE APPROACHING
1500-2000 J/KG WITH ROUGHLY 20-30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. THIS IS
SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO, ALTHOUGH THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR A WIDESPREAD
SEVERE-WEATHER EPISODE. SMALL HAIL, GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET AS INSTABILITY
WANES AND THE PASSING SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST. A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT
WILL FOLLOW WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
THE STAGE IS SET FOR A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY THAT WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING TO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST
WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS WEEK, KICKING OUT THE RIDGE OVER NEW
MEXICO THAT HAS BROUGHT ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO OUR AREA.
MEANWHILE, HURRICANE POLO SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL MONDAY IN BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD, AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH, POLO'S REMNANT MOISTURE, AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL YIELD A NORTH-SOUTH CORRIDOR OF ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PW VALUES (2.0-2.2+ INCHES) OVER TEXAS THAT WILL PROPAGATE
EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA. ADDITIONALLY, A JET STREAK WILL ROUND THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY, PLACING OUR AREA WITHIN
ITS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THUS ADDING MORE
FORCING FOR ASCENT. THIS AXIS OF FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONT, PROMOTING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
2-4" STORM TOTALS WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 6+ INCHES POSSIBLE (~10%
CHANCE), REFLECTED BY A NOTABLE SHIFT-OF-TAILS SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY. WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE (LEVEL 3 OF 4) RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX ON BOTH
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HIGHLIGHT THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WITH
THIS SYSTEM.
SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING THE EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL, BUT THE DYNAMICAL SETUP APPEARS TO FAVOR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. THIS IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE AS THE FORECAST COMES
INTO FOCUS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AFTER STARTING OUT IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ON A GENERAL DOWNWARD TREND (HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 80S
AND LOWS INTO THE 60S) DUE TO THE RAINFALL AND A LIKELY FRONTAL
PASSAGE BEHIND THE SYSTEM. AN UPPER LOW MAY CUT OFF FROM THE
BROADER FLOW ON FRIDAY, EXTENDING RAIN CHANCES INTO THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE BOOTS THE SYSTEM OUT. POPS SLOWLY TREND
DOWNWARD AFTER THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS
CUTOFF LOW, BUT WE'LL HAVE AT LEAST A CHANCE (>30%) OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS INTO SUNDAY, POSSIBLY RESULTING IN AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR
TWO OF RAIN. FOR THIS REASON, WPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF
4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 547 AM CDT MON SEP 28 2026
VFR AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS THIS MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE D10 AIRSPACE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO PRECLUDE A MENTION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY OF
THE TAF SITES.
THIS AFTERNOON, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP, MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN CENTRAL TEXAS. THERE
IS A VERY LOW CHANCE OF STORMS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS -- PROBABILITIES
REMAIN AT OR BELOW 20%. THEREFORE, NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION
WAS ADDED. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING AND ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TAFS MAY BE NEEDED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE LATEST TRENDS. FOR WACO, PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN WELL
TO THE WEST WITH PRECIPITATION- FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
HEADING INTO TUESDAY, WE'LL BEGIN TO SEE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS CLOSER TO 20KTS.
ANY LOW CLOUDS EARLY TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KACT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 74 95 76 / 20 10 0 0
WACO 94 73 95 75 / 10 10 0 10
PARIS 89 68 93 72 / 30 0 10 0
DENTON 91 73 95 74 / 20 10 0 10
MCKINNEY 89 70 94 73 / 30 10 10 0
DALLAS 92 75 96 77 / 20 10 0 0
TERRELL 92 70 95 72 / 30 10 0 0
CORSICANA 92 71 95 73 / 20 10 0 0
TEMPLE 93 72 97 73 / 10 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 91 71 94 73 / 20 10 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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