032
FXUS64 KFWD 290746
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
246 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
- WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
- THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY, PARTICULARLY WHERE HEAVY RAIN REPEATEDLY
MOVES OVER THE SAME AREA.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TODAY, PROVIDING ONE FINAL PREDOMINANTLY DRY AND HOT DAY
BEFORE A SUBSTANTIAL PATTERN CHANGE BEGINS WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRECEDE THE APPROACHING
WESTERN TROUGH, RESULTING IN A STEADY CANOPY OF CIRRUS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. THIS SHOULD DO LITTLE TO SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES,
HOWEVER, WITH HIGHS ONCE AGAIN REACHING THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S.
THE RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE PRESSURE
FALLS INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING
WESTERN SYSTEM. THE RESULTING TIGHTENING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 30
MPH WILL BECOME COMMON DURING THE AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE ALOFT, LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING RIDGE
SHOULD THEREFORE KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS PRECIPITATION-FREE
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
ATTENTION WILL TURN WEST LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW ADVANCES
TOWARD NEW MEXICO AND DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS SPREADING EAST.
INITIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION MAY BE
APPROACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN UNFOLDING
WEDNESDAY AS A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES INTO NEW MEXICO WHILE
ANOMALOUSLY RICH TROPICAL AND GULF MOISTURE SPREADS NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INITIALLY FAVOR WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WHERE THE BETTER OVERLAP OF
MOISTURE AND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL RESIDE. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
WILL STILL BE CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON,
KEEPING THE STRONGEST FORCING WEST OF OUR AREA. AS A RESULT,
DAYTIME CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RATHER
THAN WIDESPREAD. A PASSING SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH ASCENT FOR POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED DURING
THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY.
THE ENVIRONMENT CHANGES CONSIDERABLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY
APPROACHES NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AT THE SAME TIME, A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER JET STREAK WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE PLAINS, PLACING NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEATH
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE. THIS WILL MARK THE
BEGINNING OF THE MORE SIGNIFICANT HEAVY-RAIN WINDOW. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES MAY EXCEED 2" ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS, NEAR
RECORD LEVELS FOR LATE SEPTEMBER. A 35-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, CONTINUOUSLY
SUPPLYING WARM AND MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION WHILE MAINTAINING
STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BENEATH THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL FORCING.
BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
KANSAS WHILE A DRY SLOT BEGINS ADVANCING INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS DRY AIR SHOULD SHARPEN INTO A
SOUTHWEST-TO-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CONVERGENCE AXIS SEPARATING THE
DRY INTRUSION FROM THE MOIST AIR TO ITS EAST. THIS BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME AN IMPORTANT FOCUS FOR REPEATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OF PARTICULAR NOTE IS THE ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY. STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE AXIS MAY
REPEATEDLY TRACK OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS, WHILE THE PERSISTENT
LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUALLY REPLENISHES MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH.
THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR TRAINING CONVECTION AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH 1 PM
THURSDAY FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-35. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 8" POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING
BECOMES ESTABLISHED. RAIN SHOULD PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST.
A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN PRECIPITATION APPEARS INCREASINGLY
PLAUSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DEPARTS AND
THE FIRST AXIS OF STRONGER FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM THE REGION.
THIS LULL MAY BE TEMPORARY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO
EJECT FROM THE WESTERN TROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WHILE
ANOTHER JET STREAK APPROACHES. PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLY POSITIONED BENEATH ITS RIGHT-
ENTRANCE REGION, SUPPORTING ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONGER ASCENT AND
RENEWED HEAVY RAINFALL.
CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THURSDAY NIGHT'S HEAVIEST RAIN
REMAINS CONSIDERABLY LOWER, HOWEVER. THE EVOLUTION OF WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING CONVECTION WILL LIKELY MODIFY THE LOW-
LEVEL BOUNDARIES AND DETERMINE WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ARE ABLE TO RECOVER. ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
FLOOD WATCH MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS THIS SECONDARY HEAVY-RAIN
WINDOW BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED.
THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SLOW-MOVING NEAR NEW
MEXICO INTO FRIDAY BEFORE ONLY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING EAST. THIS
WILL KEEP NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BENEATH REPEATED WAVES OF
ASCENT WITHIN A POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER
THE COOLER SURFACE AIR WILL MAINTAIN PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED SATURDAY OR
SUNDAY, BUT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
AFFECT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. THE COOLER PATTERN WILL PERSIST WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE SEP 29 2026
FOR NORTH TEXAS, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REST OF TODAY. WACO MAY EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF MVFR THIS
MORNING BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER
SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE TO AROUND 14-17 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS CLOSER TO 22
KTS. HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF OF
TODAY, HOWEVER, THEY WILL PROVIDE MINIMAL IMPACT TO THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER, RAIN
AND STORMS WILL BEGIN SPREADING EAST OUT OF WEST TEXAS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN WELL
WEST OF D10, SOME IMPACTS TO WESTERN ARRIVALS/DEPARTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.
A MORE COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO UNFOLD ON WEDNESDAY.
INITIAL IMPACT TO AREA TAF SITES WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF MVFR
CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION CLOSER TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES LATE
WEDNESDAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 76 93 73 / 0 0 40 80
WACO 93 75 94 74 / 0 0 40 70
PARIS 92 72 93 73 / 0 0 10 40
DENTON 93 74 93 70 / 0 0 30 90
MCKINNEY 93 72 92 70 / 0 0 30 80
DALLAS 94 77 94 75 / 0 0 30 80
TERRELL 94 73 94 72 / 0 0 20 50
CORSICANA 94 73 94 73 / 0 0 20 40
TEMPLE 94 72 95 72 / 0 10 50 70
MINERAL WELLS 92 72 91 69 / 0 0 50 100
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>134-141>145-156-157-159.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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