156
FXUS64 KFWD 301116
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY, THEREFORE, A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
IN EFFECT FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
- A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE US-281 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGERING THROUGH SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
THE LONG ADVERTISED PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN UNFOLDING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY LOSES
CONTROL TO THE APPROACHING WESTERN TROUGH. THE PRIMARY UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WHILE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. A PACIFIC FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH
FROM THIS LOW WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION AS IT
APPROACHES WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE REGION IS BEGINNING TODAY DRY, ALTHOUGH SHOWERS MAY SKIRT OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. INCREASING LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT AND A DEEPLY MOISTENING COLUMN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON, INITIALLY FAVORING
WESTERN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY ALSO
DEVELOP NEAR THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TEXAS, HOWEVER, COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED AT BEST.
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, PARTICULARLY ALONG AND WEST
OF US-281. MLCAPE OF NEARLY 1500 J/KG COMBINED WITH MODEST DEEP-
LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SUPERCELLS. THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, ALTHOUGH A
FEW INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR
WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS, WHICH COULD SUPPORT A BRIEF PERIOD
WHERE CONDITIONS MAY FAVOR A QUICK SPIN-UP TORNADO. THIS POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW BUT IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR LATER TODAY.
AS WE HEAD INTO TONIGHT, WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
FROM WEST TO EAST AS A MORE FOCUSED LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHIFTS EAST. A NEARLY STATIONARY SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED
FRONTAL ZONE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE TEXAS HILL COUNTRY
INTO OKLAHOMA AS INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL FORCING
OVERSPREADS THE REGION. A STRENGTHENING UPPER JET WILL ENHANCE
ASCENT WHILE A PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET CONTINUALLY
REPLENISHES THE ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIRMASS.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE BOUNDARY,
CREATING A FAVORABLE SETUP FOR REPEATED DEVELOPMENT AND TRAINING.
THIS, COMBINED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES, WILL
SUPPORT VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
SHOULD INITIALLY BE MAXIMIZED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING BEFORE GRADUALLY EXPANDING
EAST TOWARDS THE I-35 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. FOR THIS REASON, A FLOOD
WATCH WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. WIDESPREAD TOTALS
OF 2-4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WATCH, WITH LOCALIZED 5-7
INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY TRACK ACROSS
THE SAME LOCATIONS.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 219 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AS
THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SLOWLY TRANSLATES
EAST.
THE GREATEST FLASH FLOOD THREAT DURING THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
HOURS SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WESTERN NORTH TEXAS TOWARDS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AS TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING BOUNDARY. BY THIS POINT, ANTECEDENT RAINFALL
WILL BECOME AN INCREASINGLY IMPORTANT FACTOR, ALLOWING FLOODING
TO OCCUR MORE READILY DUE TO PREVIOUS WAVES OF PRECIPITATION.
CLOUD COVER, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION, AND THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. AFTERNOON
HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION, ROUGHLY 10-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE SCATTERED THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE INITIAL UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST AND THE
FIRST AXIS OF STRONGER FORCING DEPARTS. THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD
BEGIN TO DECREASE, BUT IT WILL NOT DISAPPEAR ENTIRELY. ADDITIONAL
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN FALLING ON AREAS THAT ALREADY RECEIVED
HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL CAUSE FLOODING.
THE BROADER UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN SLOW TO LEAVE THE REGION
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN
ASCENT OVER THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS, WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT
OVER THE COOLER SURFACE AIR SUPPORTS ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
RAIN WILL DEPEND CONSIDERABLY ON WHERE THURSDAY'S CONVECTION
LEAVES THE FRONTAL ZONE AND ASSOCIATED BOUNDARIES.
THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
THE FORECAST COOLER, CLOUDIER, AND PERIODICALLY WET. WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LESS LIKELY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THAN DURING THE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY PERIOD, BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND COULD STILL INTERFERE
WITH OUTDOOR PLANS.
TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL FEEL MARKEDLY DIFFERENT COMPARED TO
THE RECENT HEAT, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO 60S. THE
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST LATE IN
THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING RAIN CHANCES TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
MVFR SKIES HAVE MOVED IN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD. THE MVFR SKIES WILL
PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE VFR SKIES RETURN BY 16Z.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE BY 21Z AS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINALS REMAINS LOW, HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE THAT STORMS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTH TEXAS
TAF SITES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT AND SHIFT
NORTHEAST BY 01Z.
THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ARRIVE CLOSER TO 05Z WITH
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. ONCE THIS LINE ARRIVES, IT WILL
BE SLOW TO PROGRESS EASTWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES PERSISTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS REMAINS
MAINLY BETWEEN 05-10Z WITH THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. AFTER
10Z, THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE EAST OF THE NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS TAF SITES, HOWEVER, LINGERING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
MAY STILL GENERATE TEMPORARY IMPACTS. ALONG WITH THE
PRECIPITATION, EXPECT ERRATIC WIND SPEED/DIRECTION, LOWER CEILINGS
AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
GIVEN THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING ACTIVITY, EXPECT REFINEMENTS TO THE TAFS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 74 84 71 / 40 80 100 80
WACO 94 74 88 70 / 30 60 90 90
PARIS 94 73 86 68 / 10 30 80 90
DENTON 93 71 83 68 / 50 90 100 70
MCKINNEY 93 71 83 67 / 30 70 100 90
DALLAS 94 75 85 71 / 40 70 100 90
TERRELL 94 73 87 68 / 20 40 80 90
CORSICANA 94 73 89 69 / 20 20 80 90
TEMPLE 94 73 89 69 / 30 50 90 90
MINERAL WELLS 91 69 83 66 / 60 100 90 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...HERNANDEZ
LONG TERM....HERNANDEZ
AVIATION...HERNANDEZ
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