885
FXUS64 KFWD 010509
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
QLCS TONIGHT ALONG AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY. DISCRETE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AT
TIMES BECAME CLOSE TO SEVERE, AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON ANY STORM WHICH IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BORDERLINE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH
500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 30-35KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
BUT WILL SEE HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THESE
DISCRETE CELLS.
WE WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY INTO EAST TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE LINE AND RESULTING
SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES FLOODING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SEVERE WIND GUST
OR BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH WANING
INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN IDEAL 0-3KM LINE-NORMAL SHEAR SHOULD
HOPEFULLY KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN CHECK.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT IN INTO TWO SEPARATE FEATURES THURSDAY
EVENING, ONE AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER A
SOUTHWEST MOVING CLOSED LOW. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION,
THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL GENERATE ONE LAST ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
THE THREAT COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
COOLER AND DAMP WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE DAMP WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE FRONTAL
LAYER (AROUND THE EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW) WILL GENERATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER, BUT ANY RAIN
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO
AN END LATE SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER TO THE
WEST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SEND A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER, DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY, FURTHER DRYING THINGS OUT AND
BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST SHOULD BECOME FAIRLY
ORGANIZED AS IT PUSHES EAST OVERNIGHT AND ENCROACHES ON THE
METROPLEX AREA TAF SITES AROUND 09Z AND KACT 12-14Z. WILL HAVE
MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDER THROUGH 15-16Z IN THE DFW AREA
AND THROUGH 19-20Z AT KACT. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION/THUNDER IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A WORKED-OVER ENVIRONMENT, BUT
REDEVELOPMENT IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY AFTER 03Z THURSDAY NIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET REDEVELOPS. AN ADDITIONAL VCTS GROUP HAS BEEN
ADDED TO ALL TAFS STARTING 03Z THURSDAY EVENING WITH A PROB30 FOR
TS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY, BUT ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 73 81 71 / 70 90 90 50
WACO 94 74 85 71 / 40 60 90 50
PARIS 92 73 85 69 / 30 50 80 60
DENTON 89 70 81 68 / 70 90 90 50
MCKINNEY 90 70 80 67 / 60 80 90 50
DALLAS 90 75 82 71 / 60 80 90 50
TERRELL 94 72 84 68 / 50 50 80 50
CORSICANA 93 73 86 70 / 50 40 80 60
TEMPLE 91 72 87 69 / 40 60 90 50
MINERAL WELLS 88 69 83 66 / 60 100 80 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page