549
FXUS64 KFWD 011007
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
507 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW EASTWARD
PROGRESS, AND WILL TAKE MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE MORNING TO WORK ITS
WAY ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS, AS THE SEVERE THREAT HAS DECREASED WITH TIME
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A LULL IN PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON, FOLLOWED BY A RESURGENCE OF ACTIVITY THIS EVENING
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW LEVEL JET. A FLOOD WATCH HENCE
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ALONG THE OKLAHOMA/KANSAS BORDER OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS, PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO TEXAS AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. CONVECTION HAS EVOLVED INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED
QLCS TONIGHT ALONG AN ATTENDANT PACIFIC FRONT PUSHING EAST INTO
THE BIG COUNTRY. DISCRETE CONVECTION OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN LINE AT
TIMES BECAME CLOSE TO SEVERE, AND WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE
ON ANY STORM WHICH IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN A ROTATING UPDRAFT. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS BORDERLINE FOR SUPPORTING SEVERE WEATHER WITH
500-1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE AND 30-35KT OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR,
BUT WILL SEE HOW THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THESE
DISCRETE CELLS.
WE WILL ALSO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THE MAIN LINE OF
STORMS AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD OVERNIGHT, REACHING THE I-35
CORRIDOR BY DAYBREAK AND EVENTUALLY INTO EAST TEXAS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SLOW FORWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE LINE AND RESULTING
SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRAINING OF THUNDERSTORMS MAKES FLOODING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN, AND A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A SEVERE WIND GUST
OR BRIEF SPIN-UP TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, THOUGH WANING
INSTABILITY AND LESS THAN IDEAL 0-3KM LINE-NORMAL SHEAR SHOULD
HOPEFULLY KEEP THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN CHECK.
THE UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT IN INTO TWO SEPARATE FEATURES THURSDAY
EVENING, ONE AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING SHORTWAVE AND THE OTHER A
SOUTHWEST MOVING CLOSED LOW. AFTER A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION,
THE SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONT WILL GENERATE ONE LAST ROUND OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
THE THREAT COMING TO AN END AS THE COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
COOLER AND DAMP WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. THE DAMP WEATHER CAN BE ATTRIBUTED
TO THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL HAVE DROPPED SOUTHWEST
INTO WEST TEXAS. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE FRONTAL
LAYER (AROUND THE EAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW) WILL GENERATE
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT WILL BE MUCH LOWER, BUT ANY RAIN
COULD AGGRAVATE ONGOING FLOODING ISSUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL COME TO
AN END LATE SUNDAY AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND DRIFTS FARTHER TO THE
WEST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL SEND A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER, DRIER AIR THROUGH THE
REGION LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY, FURTHER DRYING THINGS OUT AND
BRINGING PLEASANT WEATHER TO START THE WORK WEEK. LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ALONG WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 433 AM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
THE DFW AREA TAFS WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH ONGOING CONVECTION,
WHICH WILL HANG AROUND FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING. KACT STILL
HAS SOME TIME BEFORE THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS
ARRIVES (14-16Z). A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY IS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON
AS A WORKED-OVER ATMOSPHERE ATTEMPTS TO RECOVER, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE AFTER 04Z TONIGHT. SIMILARLY, MVFR CIGS MAY
LIFT TO VFR FOR A WHILE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD RETURN FAIRLY
QUICKLY TO MVFR TONIGHT. A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT EASES THROUGH THE AREA.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY, BUT ANY REPORTS OF HAZARDOUS
WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 70 79 67 / 90 60 70 60
WACO 85 70 80 67 / 90 80 80 70
PARIS 85 68 79 65 / 80 90 80 60
DENTON 81 68 79 63 / 90 50 50 50
MCKINNEY 80 67 78 63 / 90 70 70 60
DALLAS 82 71 80 67 / 90 70 70 70
TERRELL 84 69 79 66 / 80 90 80 70
CORSICANA 86 70 79 67 / 80 90 90 70
TEMPLE 87 69 81 65 / 90 80 90 70
MINERAL WELLS 83 65 78 60 / 80 30 40 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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