213
FXUS64 KFWD 011816
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
116 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG
AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BRINGING HEAVY RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA. SINCE THIS MORNING, THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS PRODUCED 1-3
INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST WITH ISOLATED POCKETS BETWEEN 4 AND 5
INCHES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY PROGRESSIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY, THESE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE I-35
CORRIDOR INTO EAST TEXAS. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE BROKEN WITH
TIME. NONETHELESS, THE FLASH FLOODING RISK THAT HAS BEEN REALIZED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DFW METROPLEX WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE OF HEAVY RAIN,
THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH HAS NOT BEEN EXPANDED EAST AS OF NOW.
HOWEVER, CONDITIONS ARE BEING MONITORED AND THE FLOOD WATCH AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPDATED THIS AFTERNOON. BY THIS EVENING MOST OF THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF TOWARDS THE
EAST WITH ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
(30-50% CHANCE OF RAIN) INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND RAIN WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW
AVERAGE FOR MOST IN THE REGION WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-70S
TO THE MID-80S. UPPER-80S ARE EXPECTED IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS THE
LATE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP HAS ALLOWED FOR STRONGER DIURNAL
WARMING THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
TONIGHT, REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED (70-80% CHANCE OF RAIN) GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF I-20. THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR; HOWEVER, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE
TOMORROW.
BY FRIDAY, A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL
FINALLY ADVANCE SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. ALOFT, WEAK
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE VICINITY OF AND
BEHIND THE INCOMING COLD FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT
FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL, IT SHOULD BE ANOTHER CLOUDY AND RAINY
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAINING IN THE 70S.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
..FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL REMINISCE OF FRIDAYS WEATHER.
HOWEVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL VORT
MAX WILL GRADUALLY DE-AMPLIFY DURING THIS TIME FRAME RESULTING IN
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE (50-70%) OF REMAINING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS (AS OPPOSED TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK). NORTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT IN COOLER CONTINENTAL AIR FROM UP
NORTH, KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE YET AGAIN IN THE 70S.
SUNDAY, THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH THE
MID-LEVEL VORT MAX DISSIPATING AND ADVECTING OFF TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH RESIDUAL LIFT
FROM THIS UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC LIFT
OVER THE SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS TO BRING ANOTHER DAY OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS (30-50%). THE GREATEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE WILL BE GREATEST.
..MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
BY MONDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AS ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACTUALLY BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THIS WEEKEND (HIGHS IN THE 80S) DUE TO THE
DRYNESS OF THE AIR AND INCREASED DAYTIME HEATING FROM MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE IN THE 50S
AND LOW-60S AS THIS SAME WEATHER PATTERN FAVORS STRONG RADIATIVE
COOLING AT NIGHT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT THU OCT 1 2026
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SLOWLY DEPART D10,
TRANSIENT AREAS OF LIFR CIGS (BKN002-004) WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
TRACON THROUGH 21Z. THOUGH GUIDANCE SHOWS A PERIOD OF VFR CIGS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z, THERE IS A CHANCE (30-40%) FOR
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS. AFTER 03Z, MVFR/IFR CIGS BUILD BACK IN
ACROSS ALL TAF SITES. THERE IS AN INCREASING SIGNAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP INVOF ALL TAF SITES AFTER
06Z. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN COVERAGE AND LOCATION, HAVE OPTED TO
KEEP AS A PROB30 FOR NOW. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AFTER THE END OF THE CURRENT PROB30 GROUP. AS SUCH,
EXPECT RA/TSRA TIMING TO BE REFINED AND EXTENDED IN SUBSEQUENT
TAF ISSUANCES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT WED SEP 30 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY, BUT ANY REPORTS OF FLOODING OR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 76 67 76 / 80 80 70 70
WACO 70 78 68 78 / 90 90 70 70
PARIS 68 77 67 76 / 90 80 60 70
DENTON 68 75 64 76 / 70 70 60 70
MCKINNEY 67 76 64 76 / 90 80 70 70
DALLAS 71 77 68 77 / 80 90 70 70
TERRELL 68 78 66 77 / 90 90 70 70
CORSICANA 70 78 68 78 / 80 90 70 70
TEMPLE 69 78 67 78 / 90 90 70 70
MINERAL WELLS 65 74 61 75 / 40 70 70 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>094-100>105-
115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174.
SHORT TERM...DARRAH
LONG TERM....DARRAH
AVIATION...DARRAH
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