280
FXUS64 KFWD 020547
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1247 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S HEAVY RAIN HAS SINCE
SPLIT INTO 2 SEPARATE FEATURES, THE FIRST A POSITIVE-TILT
SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND A
CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. TOGETHER THE SYSTEMS
WILL ASSIST IN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, A MODEST 25KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAT WHAT
TRANSPIRED ON THURSDAY, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE
WIDESPREAD 1-4" INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND
THE RESULTING SATURATION OF SOILS, WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7PM FRIDAY FOR NOW, AS ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONTAL LAYER AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEST TEXAS LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS AND MAKE ANY FURTHER DECISIONS
REGARDING ANY ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS TO THE FLOOD WATCH IF NEEDED.
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND THE WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW WEAKENS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ONE FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS AN INTENSE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH PUSHES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL STILL FEATURE
PLEASANT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S, BUT
PLENTIFUL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
LOW CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY EXPANDING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS AS A MOISTURE-LAIDEN ENVIRONMENT SETTLES ACROSS THE
AREA AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE FRONT, A MODEST LOW
LEVEL JET, AND A POSITIVE-TILT TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TAF SITES STARTING
08-10Z, BUT WILL PUSH BACK THE TEMPO TS GROUP TO 12-16Z IN THE
METROPLEX TAFS BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
A SHIFT TO NORTH WINDS IS EXPECTED WITH FROPA 10-12Z IN THE DFW
AREA AND 18-20Z AT KACT, AS THE FRONT WILL BE VERY SLOW TO PUSH
SOUTH. BRIEF IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
CIGS WILL BE QUICK TO DETERIORATE TO BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR FRIDAY
EVENING. NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE MORE
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH MAY WARRANT
VCTS IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE DFW TAF. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH -SHRA/BR WILL ALSO BE A POSSIBILITY BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 67 76 66 / 80 70 70 30
WACO 78 68 78 66 / 90 70 70 60
PARIS 77 67 76 64 / 80 60 70 30
DENTON 75 64 76 64 / 70 60 70 20
MCKINNEY 76 64 76 63 / 80 70 70 30
DALLAS 77 68 77 67 / 90 70 70 30
TERRELL 78 66 77 64 / 90 70 70 40
CORSICANA 78 68 78 66 / 90 70 70 50
TEMPLE 78 67 78 65 / 90 70 70 60
MINERAL WELLS 74 61 75 61 / 70 70 60 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ103>107-117>123-130>135-
143>147-156>161-174-175.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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