011
FXUS64 KFWD 021050
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING SHOWERS WILL
BRING HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING TO THE REGION.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
- NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NEXT
WEEK ALONG WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH DRIER WEATHER.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 7 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONTINUATION OF OCCASIONAL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
CHANCES FOR THUNDER TODAY ARE PRETTY LOW GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY, BUT IN SUCH A MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT, SHOWERS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF
TIME. OTHERWISE, CLOUDY AND SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE UPPER LOW RESPONSIBLE FOR THURSDAY'S HEAVY RAIN HAS SINCE
SPLIT INTO 2 SEPARATE FEATURES, THE FIRST A POSITIVE-TILT
SHORTWAVE HEADED EAST TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE SECOND A
CLOSED LOW RETROGRADING INTO FAR WEST TEXAS. TOGETHER THE SYSTEMS
WILL ASSIST IN THE SOUTHWARD PUSH OF A WEAK COLD FRONT, WHICH WILL
SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT, A MODEST 25KT LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAT WHAT
TRANSPIRED ON THURSDAY, BUT SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD STILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AFTERNOON, BUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE THE SURFACE FRONT. BECAUSE OF THE
WIDESPREAD 1-4" INCHES OF RAIN RECEIVED OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS AND
THE RESULTING SATURATION OF SOILS, WILL GO AHEAD AND EXTEND THE
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 7PM FRIDAY FOR NOW, AS ISOLATED ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. WITH THAT BEING
SAID, MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF
AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.
A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR FRIDAY EVENING, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE FRONTAL LAYER AROUND THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE WEST TEXAS LOW. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE ONCE AGAIN SCATTERED IN NATURE, BUT THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL
LET THE DAY SHIFT REASSESS AND MAKE ANY FURTHER DECISIONS
REGARDING ANY ADDITIONAL EXTENSIONS TO THE FLOOD WATCH IF NEEDED.
ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF AND THE WEST TEXAS UPPER LOW WEAKENS.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
ONE FINAL OPPORTUNITY FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY AS AN INTENSE
GREAT LAKES TROUGH PUSHES A SECONDARY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AND MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. ALL ACTIVITY WILL COME TO AN END
SUNDAY NIGHT AS DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR FILTERS SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RESULT WILL BE PLEASANT WEATHER TO START THE
WORK WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND HIGHS IN THE
80S.
A WARMING TREND CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK AS A STRONG 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK WILL STILL FEATURE
PLEASANT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S, BUT
PLENTIFUL SUN AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE WILL PUSH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 80S TO MIDDLE 90S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
CEILINGS WILL VARY FROM IFR TO MVFR THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS A
MOISTURE-RICH ENVIRONMENT REMAINS IN PLACE AND A WEAK COLD FRONT
EASES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH HAS ALREADY
SHIFTED WINDS TO LIGHT NORTHEAST IN THE METROPLEX, WITH ACTUAL FROPA
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE
TAFS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF ANY LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AND A LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS IN
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL OCCUR. A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICES ARE APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 68 76 67 / 70 70 60 30
WACO 79 68 79 67 / 90 70 60 50
PARIS 80 66 77 64 / 70 40 50 30
DENTON 79 65 76 65 / 60 70 60 30
MCKINNEY 78 65 76 63 / 70 70 60 30
DALLAS 80 69 77 68 / 80 70 60 40
TERRELL 79 67 77 65 / 90 60 60 40
CORSICANA 79 68 79 66 / 90 60 60 50
TEMPLE 80 67 80 66 / 90 60 50 50
MINERAL WELLS 79 62 75 62 / 60 70 60 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ103>107-117>123-130>135-
143>147-156>161-174-175.
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...30
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