967
FXUS64 KFWD 021815
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY, THOUGH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY WILL GENERALLY DECREASE WITH TIME.
- THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONTINUES TO DECREASE. THE
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM TODAY, BUT AN
EXTENSION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY EVENING. DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
A SLOW-MOVING FRONT REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS CONTINUING
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. COVERAGE HAS STEADILY
DECREASED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS DESPITE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST
AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING BECOMES INCREASINGLY DIFFUSE.
MEANINGFUL BUOYANCY IS DISPLACED FROM MUCH OF THE RAIN SHIELD,
WITH THE COOL/POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LITTLE
USEFUL INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE WITH ONLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
WHILE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE WET FOLLOWING THE PAST
COUPLE DAYS OF RAINFALL, THE DECREASING COVERAGE AND LACK OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUBSTANTIALLY LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THE FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH ITS SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 7 PM, BUT AN EXTENSION IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD STILL OCCUR WHERE ANY
HEAVIER SHOWERS REPEATEDLY AFFECT SATURATED AREAS, THOUGH THE
OVERALL FLOOD THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
A RELATIVE LULL IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING BEFORE SHOWER COVERAGE
INCREASES AGAIN OVERNIGHT. THIS INCREASE WILL BE DRIVEN LESS BY
INSTABILITY AND MORE BY CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ABOVE THE
SHALLOW POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS AS THE WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH REMAINS
NEARBY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD SPREAD BACK ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE SHOULD GENERALLY FAVOR CENTRAL TEXAS AND AREAS WEST OF
I-35, THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION
AXIS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN.
THE WEAKENING TROUGH WILL FINALLY BEGIN PULLING AWAY ON SATURDAY
WHILE PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SHOWERS MAY
REMAIN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT COVERAGE SHOULD STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
THE PROLONGED UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL FINALLY COME TO AN END THIS
WEEKEND AS THE LINGERING UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND DEPARTS. MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY SATURDAY NIGHT, THOUGH A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT ARRIVING SUNDAY MAY SQUEEZE OUT ONE FINAL ROUND OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE SLOWER TO DEPART. ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WILL END
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SUNDAY AS DRIER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION
BEHIND THE FRONT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL THEN PROVIDE SEVERAL DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER, WITH COOLER AND LESS HUMID NIGHTS FOLLOWED BY
INCREASINGLY WARMER AFTERNOONS AS ABUNDANT SUNSHINE RETURNS.
THE PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DOMINATED BY MID-LEVEL
RIDGING DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
STRONGER WESTERLIES RETREAT TO THE NORTH. SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY
COLUMN SHOULD MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE
TEMPERATURES STEADILY WARM. HIGHS SHOULD RETURN TO THE 80S ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHILE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW
EVENTUALLY RETURNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE AND INCREASINGLY ISOLATED SHOWERS HANG AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT CONDITIONS MAY OCCASIONALLY IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH
SUNSET. THUNDER POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF DUE
TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY, BUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY AT KACT. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT DROP IN VISIBILITY. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LOW PROBABILITY (20-
30%) OF LIFR CIGS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAFS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 114 PM CDT FRI OCT 2 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT LIKELY THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT ANY REPORTS
OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ARE
APPRECIATED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 69 77 68 82 / 60 60 30 10
WACO 69 80 68 82 / 60 60 50 30
PARIS 66 76 64 84 / 30 40 30 10
DENTON 66 77 65 83 / 60 60 20 10
MCKINNEY 65 76 64 82 / 60 50 20 10
DALLAS 69 78 69 83 / 60 60 30 10
TERRELL 67 78 65 83 / 50 50 30 20
CORSICANA 68 79 67 81 / 50 50 40 30
TEMPLE 68 81 67 82 / 70 60 50 40
MINERAL WELLS 62 75 63 82 / 80 70 30 10
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ103>107-117>123-
130>135-143>147-156>161-174-175.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...FENSKE
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