526
FXUS64 KFWD 030623
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
123 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT, WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN ENDS.
- DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
RADAR IMAGERY EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WITH THE MOST
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN HALF. THIS ACTIVITY IS
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA, OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR ELP. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN AREAWIDE TODAY, ALTHOUGH RAIN WILL BE
INTERMITTENT AND NOT ALL AREAS WILL SEE RAIN. IN ADDITION,
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. THICK
CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN QUITE A
BIT TODAY, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80.
RAIN WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS THE
UPPER SYSTEM GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER AND EAST OF OUR AREA, SHUTTING
OFF LIFT AND ALLOWING DRIER AIR TO FILTER DOWN FROM THE NORTH.
DECREASING CLOUDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A WARMER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
REST OF THE WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE POLAR JET REMAINS
SITUATED ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER WITH A WEAK NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED UPPER RIDGE SITUATED FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE
GULF COAST. NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SEE COOL NIGHTS IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH WARM DAYS IN THE 80S
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND A WARMUP INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH COOLER THAN WHAT WE SAW
IN OUR RECORD HOT SEPTEMBER, THESE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
BY NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK, POTENTIAL TROPICAL
SYSTEMS OFF THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO AND IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY
BRING INCREASING MOISTURE AND A RETURN OF RAIN CHANCES TO OUR
AREA - BUT UNCERTAINTY IS QUITE HIGH THIS FAR OUT IN TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
POOR FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD WITH LOW CIGS
AND LIGHT RAIN AFFECTING ALL AIRPORTS. MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY IN THE
TAF PERIOD WILL BECOME IFR AFTER 09Z AND NOT IMPROVE BACK TO MVFR
UNTIL 21Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR CIGS IS POSSIBLE NEAR/AFTER THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD ON SATURDAY NIGHT. LIGHT RAIN IS ALREADY
IMPACTING D10 AND ACT THIS HOUR, AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE.
NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS 5-11 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT SAT OCT 3 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 68 82 65 / 70 20 10 0
WACO 78 67 82 66 / 70 20 10 0
PARIS 76 64 84 60 / 50 20 10 0
DENTON 76 65 83 62 / 80 20 10 0
MCKINNEY 75 63 82 61 / 60 20 10 0
DALLAS 77 68 83 65 / 70 20 10 0
TERRELL 77 65 83 63 / 60 20 10 0
CORSICANA 78 66 82 65 / 50 20 10 0
TEMPLE 79 66 83 65 / 70 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 75 62 82 59 / 80 10 10 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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