863
FXUS64 KFWD 041002
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
502 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BEFORE ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON.
- DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL NEXT WEEK WITH COOL MORNINGS AND WARM
DAYS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING DUE TO LIFT ON THE EAST
SIDE OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WEST TEXAS. AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS ACROSS THEN EAST OF OUR AREA TODAY, RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS MORNING PER CAMS SUCH AS THE HRRR/RRFS,
THEN GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY AND ADVECTS IN A DRIER AIRMASS.
NBM POPS APPEAR TOO LOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF RAIN THIS
MORNING, AND HAVE BUMPED PRECIP CHANCES UP INTO THE HIGH CHANCE
AND LIKELY CATEGORY. MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE LESS THAN ONE QUARTER
INCH OF RAIN TODAY, BUT SOME LOCALIZED HEAVIER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR
DUE TO THE VERY SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AS SHOWN BY THE PWAT
OF 2.11 INCHES ON THE 00Z FWD SOUNDING.
WITH RAIN AND CLOUD COVER DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON, HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY PEAK HEATING. IN ADDITION, THE CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING
DEWPOINTS TONIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR AN AUTUMN-LIKE NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 60S IN OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
THE REST OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY DRY WITH WARM DAYS AND
COOL NIGHTS AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS IN WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO
MID 60S WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 EACH DAY, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER WEST TEXAS FROM
THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, AND THIS SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO PULL
ENOUGH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE THIS WEEK.
HOWEVER, THIS IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AND MOST IF NOT ALL OF ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY OFF TO OUR SOUTH.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 520 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
IFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE ARE ANTICIPATED AT
AIRPORTS THROUGH 16-17Z THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR FILTERING IN FROM
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE CONDITIONS TO MVFR AFTER THAT
TIME WITH VFR RETURNING BY 20-21Z. NORTH WINDS UP TO 10 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 65 84 61 / 60 10 0 0
WACO 81 67 83 60 / 60 10 0 0
PARIS 84 61 84 55 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 82 63 84 57 / 50 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 82 62 83 56 / 40 10 0 0
DALLAS 82 67 84 61 / 60 10 0 0
TERRELL 82 64 83 58 / 50 10 0 0
CORSICANA 81 66 82 59 / 60 10 0 0
TEMPLE 82 66 84 60 / 60 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 80 60 83 55 / 60 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM....SHAMBURGER
AVIATION...SHAMBURGER
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