682
FXUS64 KFWD 041829
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
129 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING BEHIND IT.
- DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK, WITH COOL MORNINGS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES MAY RETURN TO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS WEEKEND’S WET
WEATHER SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR IS ALREADY
WAITING IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AND WILL STEADILY WORK INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL NOT ONLY
BRING AN END TO THE RAIN, BUT ALSO ALLOW CLOUDS TO CLEAR FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT
IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS, AND FALLING DEWPOINTS WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR EFFICIENT COOLING TONIGHT, WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 50S NEAR THE RED RIVER TO THE MID 60S ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS. RECENT RAINFALL AND MOIST SOILS COULD SUPPORT A FEW POCKETS
OF SHALLOW FOG WHERE WINDS BECOME CALM AND TEMPERATURES COOL TO
SATURATION, BUT THE INCREASINGLY DRY AIR SHOULD KEEP THIS FAIRLY
LOCALIZED. OTHERWISE, MONDAY WILL BE QUIET AND PLEASANT WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. DESPITE THE COOLER
START, THE DRY AIRMASS WILL WARM EFFICIENTLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF WEAK NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL FAVOR
FAIRLY LARGE DAY-TO-NIGHT TEMPERATURE SWINGS, WITH COOL MORNINGS
FOLLOWED BY WARM AFTERNOONS. LOWS TUESDAY MORNING WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND WELL INTO THE
80S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE TO WARM AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EAST, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO EVENTUALLY RETURN.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 BY
MIDWEEK, WHILE INCREASING DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY BRING OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE 60S. THIS IS OTHERWISE A LOW-IMPACT
STRETCH OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NO RAIN EXPECTED.
THE FORECAST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN LATE IN THE WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW
DEVELOPS SOMEWHERE ACROSS WEST TEXAS THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND
POTENTIALLY LINGERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THERE IS INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP, BUT ITS EVENTUAL
POSITION AND TRACK REMAIN LESS CERTAIN AND WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR
NORTH RAIN CHANCES CAN SPREAD. OF PARTICULAR IMPORTANCE WILL BE
HOW QUICKLY GULF MOISTURE CAN RETURN AHEAD OF THE LOW. THE BETTER
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT MAY INITIALLY RESIDE TO OUR WEST WHILE THE
DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS TO OUR SOUTH, POTENTIALLY LEAVING MUCH OF
NORTH TEXAS BETWEEN THE TWO. FOR NOW, LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20%
WILL NUDGE INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, WHILE MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS REMAINS RAIN-FREE.
THESE RAIN CHANCES COULD EVENTUALLY NEED TO EXPAND IF LATER
GUIDANCE BRINGS THE UPPER LOW AND RETURNING MOISTURE INTO BETTER
ALIGNMENT OVER THE REGION.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 121 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
CEILINGS HAVE SLOWLY BEGUN TO IMPROVE TO MVFR AT DFW AND DAL AS
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
INTERMITTENT IFR CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO
ELSEWHERE IN THE METROPLEX AND AT KACT, WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO LIFT
QUICKLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, TRANSITIONING TO VFR CONDITIONS BY
21-22Z AS DRIER AIR FINALLY PUSHES IN AND SHOWERS BECOME
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED. NNE FLOW AT 5-12 KT WILL CONTINUE AT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 79 66 81 61 / 50 10 0 0
WACO 81 67 82 61 / 50 10 0 0
PARIS 81 60 83 56 / 20 0 0 0
DENTON 80 62 82 58 / 40 10 0 0
MCKINNEY 79 62 80 57 / 40 10 0 0
DALLAS 81 66 82 62 / 40 10 0 0
TERRELL 79 64 82 59 / 40 0 0 0
CORSICANA 81 65 82 60 / 40 0 0 0
TEMPLE 82 66 83 61 / 60 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 78 62 83 55 / 70 10 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...FENSKE
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