857
FXUS64 KFWD 060144
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS WILL BE SEEN
THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
- PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP IN OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES TUESDAY
MORNING.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE
REGION. CONTINUED NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AID IN THE ADVECTION OF
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY, HOWEVER,
WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT A BIT FURTHER OUT OF THE EAST IN
RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL RIDGING TO OUR EAST. WHILE MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL HELP TO WARM US
SOMEWHAT, THE UPSLOPE EASTERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS PEAKING MAINLY
IN THE LOW-UPPER 80S THROUGH MIDWEEK. LIGHTER OVERNIGHT WINDS AND
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING,
KEEPING MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW-MID 60S. ON TOP OF THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING, MOIST SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS WILL AID IN
THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY FOG, PARTICULARLY IN OUR FAR
WEST AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY MORNING (AND AGAIN
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY MORNING).
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
BOTTOM LINE: MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
INTO THE WEEKEND.
LATE IN THE WEEK, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING
SOUTHEAST FROM CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE IS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
INCREASED GULF MOISTURE MAY SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS,
BUT THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON IF ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REACH OUR
CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TO
CULMINATE IN LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN THURSDAY ONWARD. AT THIS TIME,
IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH OF ANY RESULTING SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RAIN CHANCES
HAVE GENERALLY LESSENED TO 10% OR LESS. NONETHELESS, WE'LL NEED TO
KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THE TROPICAL WAVE DEVELOPS AND HOW MODELS
RESOLVE ITS MOVEMENT TO FURTHER REFINE ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 843 PM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS. NO
SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT MON OCT 5 2026
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 63 83 62 83 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 62 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 57 83 57 84 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 59 84 58 84 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 58 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 62 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 60 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 61 87 60 88 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 62 84 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 56 86 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
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