309
FXUS64 KFWD 081737
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1237 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE INFLUENCED BY A DRY ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLED OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THEREFORE, EXPECT
SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S (SPORADIC READINGS IN THE UPPER
50S IN OUR MORE RURAL AND LOW-LYING AREAS). LOCATIONS IN THE
BRAZOS VALLEY AND THE BIG COUNTRY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE AFTERNOON
HIGHS APPROACH 90 DEGREES.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
HERE IN NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, WARM AND DRY EARLY-FALL WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS WE WATCH HURRICANE ISAIAS MAKE
LANDFALL NEAR THE MOBILE, AL-PENSACOLA, FL AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS LARGELY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS THE REMNANTS OF
HURRICANE ISAIAS SHIFT TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY,
MID/UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH SURFACE TROUGHING OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL
FINALLY ALLOW FOR BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ALLOWING FOR NOT ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT AN UPTICK IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AS WELL. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID
90S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE
70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR).
A HIGHER PWAT AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS BY TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF DEEP TROUGHING OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS. THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, BUT WE WILL START TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW-
END RAIN CHANCES TO AREAS WEST OF I-35 ON WEDNESDAY AS GUIDANCE
POINTS TOWARD A WEAKENING OF THE OVERHEAD RIDGE. WE WILL CARRY
THESE LOWER RAIN CHANCES (20-30%) ACROSS PRIMARILY OUR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES THROUGH THURSDAY.
A LARGER PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR JUST BEYOND THIS FORECAST
PERIOD IN THE DAY 8-9 TIME PERIOD. THERE IS RATHER STRONG
AGREEMENT IN THE LONG-TERM MODEL GUIDANCE THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE FRIDAY-SATURDAY
TIMEFRAME NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
POTENTIALLY MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION. WITH THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE STILL MORE THAN A WEEK FROM OCCURRING, THE SPREAD
IN TEMPERATURES OFFERED UP BY THIS CURRENT SUITE OF GUIDANCE
VARIES OVER A WIDE RANGE OF VALUES. HERE ARE SOME DETAILS THAT CAN
HOPEFULLY GIVE A BIT MORE CONTEXT INTO WHAT THIS MORNING'S DATA
SET OFFERED:
1. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG AGREEMENT THAT FROPA WILL OCCUR
SOMETIME FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT, OCTOBER 16TH.
2. ROUGHLY 75% OF THE MOST RECENT GFS ENSEMBLE SUITE AND 60% OF
THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE SUITE SHOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW 70
DEGREES ON SATURDAY ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS (A TAD COOLER
IN THE AI ITERATIONS OF THESE MODELS).
3. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S REGIONWIDE LOOK LIKELY WITH A 40-50%
CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES DIPPING INTO THE 40S IN OUR MORE RURAL
COUNTIES ALONG THE RED RIVER AND WEST OF I-35. THIS POTENTIAL
DROPS BELOW 20% IN THE DFW METROPLEX AND OUR CENTRAL TEXAS
COUNTIES.
ALL OF THIS TO SAY, IT LOOKS COOLER NEXT WEEKEND THAN IT IS NOW,
SO STAY TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES!
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS GENERALLY BELOW 8
KTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS TERMINALS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 88 67 86 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 66 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 63 88 63 85 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 64 88 64 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 64 87 64 85 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 68 88 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 65 89 65 86 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 65 87 65 85 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 65 88 64 87 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 64 88 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...LANGFELD
LONG TERM....LANGFELD
AVIATION...LANGFELD
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