952
FXUS64 KFWD 091726
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1226 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM, DRY, AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, AND THE CALM, CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING AND NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL SWING,
GOING FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1253 AM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO EVOLVE. AS TROUGHING
DIGS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING WILL INITIALLY
AMPLIFY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RATHER THAN IMMEDIATELY WEAKEN.
MEANWHILE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST WHILE LEE
TROUGHING STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS, ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED EARLY IN THE PERIOD. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL SUPPORT SUBTLE
WARMING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
80S AND LOWER 90S SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE MORE LOCATIONS REACH
THE LOWER TO MID 90S TUESDAY. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND STRONGER OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE NOTICEABLE IMPACT ON
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES, WITH LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER TO MID
70S MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND.
THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY INFLUENTIAL BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS IT DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
BEGINS TO DISPLACE THE RIDGE EASTWARD. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT SHOULD EVENTUALLY DRAW A PLUME OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC WHILE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO REPLENISH GULF MOISTURE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS. DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE, STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING BENEATH THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS DRY THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO RETURN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS THE WESTERN TROUGH APPROACHES AND THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS.
THE FIRST OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FAVOR
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS WEDNESDAY, WHERE INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RETURNING
MOISTURE PLUME. RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND WILL
GRADUALLY EXPAND FARTHER EAST. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
HOW QUICKLY THE WESTERN TROUGH PROGRESSES AND, CONSEQUENTLY, HOW
QUICKLY APPRECIABLE FORCING CAN OVERCOME THE LINGERING INFLUENCE
OF THE RIDGE. OVERALL, THE LIKELIHOOD THAT THERE WILL BE A
TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN DURING THE LATTER HALF
OF NEXT WEEK IS CONTINUING TO INCREASE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS (0-6KT)
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING NEAR-CALM AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A MORE
TYPICAL 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME SHOULD RESUME LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 65 91 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 61 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 62 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 60 91 67 92 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 62 89 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 66 91 69 92 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 62 90 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 64 90 66 91 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 61 92 65 93 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 59 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...FENSKE
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