936
FXUS64 KFWD 091840
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
140 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, WITH
COOL NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION NEXT
WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
WARM, DRY, AND SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE SHORT-TERM
PERIOD. MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND A DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, AND THE CALM, CLEAR CONDITIONS SHOULD PROMOTE
EFFICIENT DAYTIME MIXING AND NOCTURNAL RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS A
RESULT, TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL SWING,
GOING FROM MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TO HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S TODAY AND TOMORROW.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 118 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
..SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
ISAIAS AND A DEVELOPING LEE CYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
FACILITATE THE RETURN OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY. MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE SHOULD ALSO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK, RESULTING IN PW VALUES WELL ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WHERE EXACTLY THIS AXIS OF
RICHEST MOISTURE SETS UP WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR EAST. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF SUCH MOISTURE, A
GENERAL LACK OF FORCING WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH TUESDAY
ASIDE FROM A SHOWER OR TWO IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY DUE TO MOISTURE
ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS
TIME, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S AND LOWS CLIMBING INTO THE
MID-70S BY TUESDAY MORNING.
..WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
A MORE UNSETTLED PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL US. PRECIP MAY OCCUR ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS THE AXIS OF HIGHER PW VALUES,
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN ITS PLACEMENT AND COVERAGE. THE BETTER
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY, WHEN FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC FORCING, INSTABILITY, AND HEALTHY MOISTURE COINCIDE. HIGH
MOISTURE AND THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR NEAR THE RED RIVER ON THURSDAY
ALSO INTRODUCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE ORGANIZED STORMS WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.
WHILE INDIVIDUAL MEMBERS MAY DISAGREE ON FRONTAL TIMING AND
STRENGTH, ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE OVERWHELMINGLY POINTS TO A COLD FRONT
PUSHING THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TX TOWARD THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK FOLLOWING THE ROUND OF PRECIP. FOR INSTANCE, 90% OF LREF
MEMBERS HAVE HIGH TEMPS DIPPING BELOW 80 DEGREES AT SOME POINT
NEXT WEEKEND. FORECAST TEMPERATURES MAY CHANGE AS THIS EVENT COMES
INTO VIEW, BUT THE FRONT WILL AT THE LEAST EXCHANGE OUR
ABNORMALLY WARM WEATHER FOR NEAR-AVERAGE TEMPS MORE BECOMING OF
FALL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT FRI OCT 9 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. LIGHT WINDS (0-6KT)
GENERALLY FROM THE EAST SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING NEAR-CALM AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A MORE
TYPICAL 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME SHOULD RESUME LATE TOMORROW
MORNING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 89 65 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 89 61 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 90 62 89 63 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 90 60 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 88 62 89 66 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 90 66 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 90 62 90 65 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 90 61 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 59 91 65 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...FENSKE
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