141
FXUS64 KFWD 101721
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1221 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING AN END TO
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DESPITE TODAY'S COOL, PLEASANT MORNING LOWS, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND DRY, SUNNY
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. AS A
RESULT, SUNDAY'S MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA TIGHTENS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BRINGS GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND
EFFICIENT MIXING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 140 AM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
THE PRIMARY STORY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD WILL BE THE CONTINUATION OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
WHILE AN INCREASINGLY MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A DEEPENING WESTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED NEAR THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL STRENGTHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING SUNDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BEGIN
TRANSPORTING GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, WHILE INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DRAWS PACIFIC MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION.
DESPITE THE INCREASING MOISTURE, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING AND A GENERAL
LACK OF FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD KEEP NEARLY ALL OF THE REGION
DRY THROUGH TUESDAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT ACROSS THE BRAZOS VALLEY AS DEEPER MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY IN
THE WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 80S AND
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AROUND 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN PROGRESSIVELY
WARMER NIGHTS, WITH MORNING LOWS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S BY
TUESDAY MORNING. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE FOR MID-OCTOBER,
BUT IT WILL TAKE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER FORCING LATER IN THE
WEEK TO MAKE MUCH USE OF IT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL ADVANCE
OUT OF THE WESTERN CONUS AND TOWARD THE PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BEGIN INCREASING WEDNESDAY
AS THE RIDGE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY INITIALLY DEVELOP
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
ALTHOUGH THE BETTER OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES.
THERE ARE STILL MEANINGFUL DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AS WELL AS THE POSITION OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY LOCATED TO OUR NORTH. THESE DETAILS
WILL DETERMINE EXACTLY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY, MOISTURE,
AND FORCING OVERLAP. REGARDLESS, THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
BECOME INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY. WITH
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT, LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. INCREASING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD ALSO SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS AND NEAR THE RED RIVER WHERE THE
BETTER SHEAR AND FORCING MAY RESIDE. CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW AT
THIS RANGE TO GET MORE SPECIFIC REGARDING ANY SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVENTUALLY SWEEP
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS LATE IN THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
FRONTAL TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN. CONFIDENCE IS CONSIDERABLY
HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE THAN IN EXACTLY WHEN IT WILL DO
SO. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW, BRINGING AN END TO THE
CURRENT STRETCH OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER HEADING INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TAF
SITES, THOUGH KACT HAS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS 12-16Z
TOMORROW MORNING. BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY MORNING, SOUTHERLY WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 67 91 70 90 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 64 91 68 91 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 64 90 66 89 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 65 91 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 65 90 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 68 92 71 91 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 64 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 66 90 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 64 92 68 91 / 0 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 91 67 91 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...FENSKE
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