540
FXUS64 KFWD 102308
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
608 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING AN END TO
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
DESPITE TODAY'S COOL, PLEASANT MORNING LOWS, TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE
AGAIN CLIMB WELL ABOVE AVERAGE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD AND DRY, SUNNY
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT, INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
RETURN LOW-LEVEL GULF MOISTURE TO NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. AS A
RESULT, SUNDAY'S MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN
TODAY. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA TIGHTENS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING
BRINGS GUSTY WINDS TO THE SURFACE. SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO TODAY GIVEN THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE AND
EFFICIENT MIXING. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
MONDAY, PW VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1.8-2 INCHES, INDICATING AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO A NEARBY
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND,
REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S DURING THE DAY AND FALLING ONLY INTO
THE 70S AT NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK SIGNAL FOR
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING AT LEAST
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GEFS SUITE, AI-GFS, AND EC-AIFS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH, WHICH ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE BACKED YESTERDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE FRONT IN
EARLIER, LIKELY ON FRIDAY, AND WOULD CAUSE A GREATER DROP IN
TEMPS. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF LREF MEMBERS, MOSTLY ENS, HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH, DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AND KEEPING MILDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC EURO
EVEN HAS THE FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL TX. FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT WE'LL BE MONITORING
FOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS A RESULT, OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPS TO NORTH TX COMPARED TO CENTRAL TX.
REGARDLESS, WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN PLACE MIDWEEK,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE RED RIVER, WHERE THESE INGREDIENTS MAY
OVERLAP WITH MODEST SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
(OR THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT). SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED OR
EVEN STALL OUT IN CENTRAL TX, RAIN CHANCES MAY EXTEND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT D10 AIRPORTS
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS. BY MIDDAY SUNDAY, WINDS WILL INCREASE IN
SPEED TO 10-15 KT WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT.
RECENT HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
SMALL CORRIDOR OF LOW STRATUS NEAR 1 KFT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW MORNING, AND THIS HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED TO THE WACO TAF WITH A TEMPO GROUP.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 67 91 70 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 91 64 91 68 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 89 64 90 66 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 65 91 69 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 65 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 92 68 92 71 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 91 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 92 64 92 68 / 0 0 0 10
MINERAL WELLS 91 62 91 67 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...STALLEY
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