615
FXUS64 KFWD 110732
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
232 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING AN END TO
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS WELL-AHEAD OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ENE, DEPARTING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN ITS WAKE, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR REGION'S
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
06Z OBJECTIVE RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NOW-CLOSED 1016MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. ALOFT AND TO THE
WEST, SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH, DRIVING LEE TROUGHING AND EVENTUAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A RESULTANT TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE PRESSURE FALLS AND THE
NORTHERN GULF HIGH WILL INDUCE BREEZIER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A SEASONAL OVER-PERFORMANCE OF THIS MOISTURE; IT
APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL ORIENT RETURN FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PULLED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS. ADEQUATE DIURNAL MIXING KEEPS SURFACE
DEWPOINT VALUES RELATIVELY LOWER TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ON TUESDAY MAY
INHIBIT THE DIURNAL DROP-OFF IN DEWPOINTS VIA VERTICAL MIXING TO
SOME EXTENT ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID-70S
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S WOULD DRIVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS DIABATIC
HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS PROMOTES ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBTLE WARM NOSING AROUND 700MB AS SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE LINGERS, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INITIATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NONETHELESS. ANY DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN THE WEAK AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 132 PM CDT SAT OCT 10 2026
GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK,
AND WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING IN FROM THE PACIFIC ON
MONDAY, PW VALUES SHOULD RISE TO 1.8-2 INCHES, INDICATING AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION HAS A 10-20% CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME ISOLATED
PRECIP IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY EACH AFTERNOON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT
THE VAST MAJORITY ACROSS OUR AREA WILL REMAIN DRY DUE TO A NEARBY
MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES OVERHEAD
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON AN UPWARD TREND,
REACHING THE LOW-TO-MID 90S DURING THE DAY AND FALLING ONLY INTO
THE 70S AT NIGHT.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED THE MID-TO-LATE WEEK SIGNAL FOR
RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, BRINGING AT LEAST
WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT TO THE REGION. HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY HAS
INCREASED SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE GEFS SUITE, AI-GFS, AND EC-AIFS
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH, WHICH ALMOST ALL
GUIDANCE BACKED YESTERDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD BRING THE FRONT IN
EARLIER, LIKELY ON FRIDAY, AND WOULD CAUSE A GREATER DROP IN
TEMPS. ABOUT ONE THIRD OF LREF MEMBERS, MOSTLY ENS, HAVE TRENDED
SLOWER WITH THE TROUGH, DELAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AND KEEPING MILDER POST-FRONTAL TEMPS. THE 12Z DETERMINISTIC EURO
EVEN HAS THE FRONT STALLING IN CENTRAL TX. FULL FRONTAL PASSAGE
STILL APPEARS MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME, BUT WE'LL BE MONITORING
FOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE COMING DAYS.
AS A RESULT, OUR CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT THE FRONT WILL BRING
NOTABLY COOLER TEMPS TO NORTH TX COMPARED TO CENTRAL TX.
REGARDLESS, WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN PLACE MIDWEEK,
PARTICULARLY NEAR THE RED RIVER, WHERE THESE INGREDIENTS MAY
OVERLAP WITH MODEST SHEAR TO PRODUCE A FEW ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME, THE BEST
RAIN CHANCES APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
(OR THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT). SHOULD THE FRONT BE DELAYED OR
EVEN STALL OUT IN CENTRAL TX, RAIN CHANCES MAY EXTEND INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
D10 AIRSPACE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID-MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE 25 KFT.
ACT: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERALL, ASIDE FROM THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD DECK AND A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN
CEILINGS LIKELY TO IMPACT ACT BETWEEN 13-16Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ~11 KTS, GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 70 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 91 67 90 74 / 0 0 10 0
PARIS 89 66 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 69 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 67 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 92 70 91 76 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 66 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 91 67 90 73 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 92 68 92 73 / 0 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 66 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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