123
FXUS64 KFWD 110820
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH COOL
NIGHTS AND WARM AFTERNOONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY,
WITH BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE WEEK, BRINGING AN END TO
THE UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN
TEXAS WELL-AHEAD OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RACHEL, WHICH IS CURRENTLY
POSITIONED JUST OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. TO THE EAST ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH, POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS ENE, DEPARTING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
DAY ON MONDAY. SUBTROPICAL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
CONUS IN ITS WAKE, WHICH WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF OUR REGION'S
WEATHER IN THE SHORT TERM.
06Z OBJECTIVE RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NOW-CLOSED 1016MB SURFACE HIGH
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING EXPECTED AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS. ALOFT AND TO THE
WEST, SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTHERN-STREAM FLOW WILL ACCELERATE THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES IN ADVANCE OF AN AMPLIFYING WESTERN CONUS
TROUGH, DRIVING LEE TROUGHING AND EVENTUAL LEE CYCLOGENESIS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. A RESULTANT TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LEE PRESSURE FALLS AND THE
NORTHERN GULF HIGH WILL INDUCE BREEZIER SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND
LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING A SEASONAL OVER-PERFORMANCE OF THIS MOISTURE; IT
APPEARS THAT THE EVOLVING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
WILL ORIENT RETURN FLOW WITH ORIGINS FROM A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE PULLED ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF ISAIAS. ADEQUATE DIURNAL MIXING KEEPS SURFACE
DEWPOINT VALUES RELATIVELY LOWER TODAY AND MONDAY, BUT THE ARRIVAL
OF DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC ON TUESDAY MAY
INHIBIT THE DIURNAL DROP-OFF IN DEWPOINTS VIA VERTICAL MIXING TO
SOME EXTENT ON TUESDAY. SURFACE DEWPOINT VALUES IN THE MID-70S
COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-TO-MID 90S WOULD DRIVE
APPARENT TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE DAY ON
TUESDAY.
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION MAY ALSO MAKE A RETURN ACROSS
CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY ON TUESDAY AS DIABATIC
HEATING OF THE MOIST AIRMASS PROMOTES ADEQUATE INSTABILITY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW SUBTLE WARM NOSING AROUND 700MB AS SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE LINGERS, HOWEVER CONVECTIVE ALLOWING GUIDANCE INITIATES
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NONETHELESS. ANY DEVELOPMENT
WOULD BE PULSE IN NATURE GIVEN THE WEAK AMBIENT KINEMATIC FIELDS.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER TROUGH THAT
WILL ADVANCE EAST TOWARDS THE PLAINS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. WHILE THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00Z GLOBAL SUITE
IN THE TROUGH'S POSITION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (THE CLOSED
MID/UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION BEING CENTERED OVER EASTERN UTAH),
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IS PRESENT THEREAFTER. THE ULTIMATE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH WILL COME DOWN TO HOW THE UPPER AIR
PATTERN EVOLVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC.
THE ECMWF DEPICTS GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE WHICH
EFFECTIVELY PINCHES THE TROUGH OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BRANCH OF THE
POLAR JET. IT SUBSEQUENTLY STALLS AND ALLOWS FOR PROLONGED AIR
MODIFICATION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WHICH WOULD RESULT IN A MUTED
TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE WITH EVENTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THE GFS DEPICTS A CONTINUED PROGRESSIVE TRANSLATION OF THE TROUGH,
AS THE UPSTREAM RIDGE EFFECTIVELY FAILS TO PINCH IT OFF FROM THE
JET. IT GETS SWEPT UP INTO A SEPARATE SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA, WHICH WOULD PUSH A MORE "AGGRESSIVE" COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION.
REGARDLESS, LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BEGINS TO IMPINGE ON THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY, WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOLLOWING SUITE.
THE GREATEST QPF SIGNAL EXISTS FROM THE METROPLEX NORTH AND WEST ON
WEDNESDAY, LINGERING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. IF A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SYSTEM IS REALIZED, THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS
WOULD EXIST TOWARDS THE RED RIVER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ALONG
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT, WHERE ~30KTS OF 0-6 BWD WOULD RESIDE.
AS MENTIONED, CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AND DETAILS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WORKED OUT AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
D10 AIRSPACE: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY MID-MORNING, WITH
GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ABOVE 25 KFT.
ACT: VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERALL, ASIDE FROM THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW CLOUD DECK AND A RESULTANT REDUCTION IN
CEILINGS LIKELY TO IMPACT ACT BETWEEN 13-16Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO ~11 KTS, GUSTING OVER 20 KTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 92 70 90 75 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 91 67 90 74 / 0 0 10 0
PARIS 89 66 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 69 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 90 67 89 72 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 92 70 91 76 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 91 66 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 91 67 90 73 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 92 68 92 73 / 0 0 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 66 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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