315
FXUS64 KFWD 111938
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
238 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEGINNING
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL MOISTURE, ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LAST WEEK'S HURRICANE
ISAIAS AND CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 2+ INCHES, HAS BEEN PULLED
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FOR THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS DRY ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TODAY AND TOMORROW, AS IT HAS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AREAWIDE.
FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF RICH MOISTURE, DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, AND WITH TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TX ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
MUCH INK HAS ALREADY BEEN SPILLED OVER THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN AND ITS PROGRESSION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THEIR CLEAR
DIFFERENCES, BOTH THE GEFS/GEPS, WHICH FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH,
AND THE ENS, WHICH DELAYS THE TROUGH, POSITION THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK APPROXIMATELY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWEST TX, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL VARIATIONS IN LOCATION. THIS
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A DRYLINE, THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THESE AREAS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. AT THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR
NORTHWEST RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE EURO HAS ALSO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FULLY THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING BELOW-AVERAGE, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THE
LREF SHOWS LOW TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
UP TO 25KT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY. WIND GUSTS SHOULD
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, THEN BEGIN ONCE MORE AFTER 15Z TOMORROW.
TOMORROW MORNING AROUND 11-12Z, LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL TX, PERHAPS AS FAR NORTH AS THE METROPLEX.
GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THESE LOW CLOUDS AND THE LOW
(20-35%) PROBABILITIES OF MVFR CIGS IN TEXT GUIDANCE, WE HAVE OPTED
NOT TO MENTION MVFR CIGS IN THE 18Z TAF CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 70 90 76 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 90 68 91 75 / 0 0 10 10
PARIS 89 66 90 73 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 91 69 91 74 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 89 68 89 73 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 91 71 92 77 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 90 66 91 73 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 90 67 91 74 / 0 0 10 0
TEMPLE 92 68 92 74 / 0 0 20 10
MINERAL WELLS 91 66 90 72 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...FENSKE
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page