719
FXUS64 KFWD 112316
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL BRING AN UPTICK IN PRECIP CHANCES
STARTING WEDNESDAY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BEGINNING
FRIDAY.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
TROPICAL MOISTURE, ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LAST WEEK'S HURRICANE
ISAIAS AND CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 2+ INCHES, HAS BEEN PULLED
WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
THE NORTHERN GULF AND IS SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
TODAY. BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW IN RESPONSE TO A TIGHTENED PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT THIS PLUME
OF MOISTURE TOWARD NORTH AND CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
FOR THE MOMENT, HOWEVER, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE REMAINS DRY ACROSS
OUR AREA. THE DRY ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING TODAY AND TOMORROW, AS IT HAS THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. COMBINED
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE, HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
AREAWIDE.
FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF RICH MOISTURE, DEWPOINTS ON TUESDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW-TO-MID 70S, AND WITH TEMPS STILL LIKELY TO CLIMB INTO THE
90S, AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY APPROACH THE CENTURY MARK IN
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALSO
SUPPORT ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION IN CENTRAL TX ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
RAIN CHANCES WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY, AND DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. HOWEVER, THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVER OF
MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, PRIMARILY FOR OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES.
MUCH INK HAS ALREADY BEEN SPILLED OVER THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY DIGGING TOWARD THE GREAT
BASIN AND ITS PROGRESSION EAST OF THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THEIR CLEAR
DIFFERENCES, BOTH THE GEFS/GEPS, WHICH FAVOR A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH,
AND THE ENS, WHICH DELAYS THE TROUGH, POSITION THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF A JET STREAK APPROXIMATELY OVER THE BIG COUNTRY AND
NORTHWEST TX, WITH RELATIVELY SMALL VARIATIONS IN LOCATION. THIS
AREA OF WEAK FORCING WOULD BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN IN THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A DRYLINE, THEN
PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
IN THESE AREAS AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH THROUGH NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. AT THIS TIME, MOST LIKELY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN OUR
NORTHWEST RANGE FROM 0.5-1.5 INCHES, BUT LOCALIZED AREAS COULD SEE
HIGHER AMOUNTS.
THE EURO HAS ALSO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH OTHER GUIDANCE THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FULLY THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, BRINGING BELOW-AVERAGE, FALL-LIKE TEMPERATURES TO
THE AREA. THE STRENGTH OF THIS FRONT IS STILL IN QUESTION, BUT THE
LREF SHOWS LOW TEMPERATURES MOST LIKELY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 40S
AND 50S AT SOME POINT OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2026
GUSTY SOUTH FLOW (GUSTS 15-25 KNOTS) WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z
BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN TO THE 8-13 KNOT RANGE. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER AN MVFR DECK WILL MOVE INTO TAF SITES
FROM THE WEST BETWEEN 10Z AND 16Z. PROBABILITIES WERE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE AT D10 TAF SITES, BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A TEMPO BKN027 AT
KACT DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF GREATEST POTENTIAL (12Z-15Z) TO
SEE MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINAL. OTHERWISE, EXPECT SOUTH FLOW TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTS 15-25
KNOTS RETURNING AFTER 15Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 70 90 76 92 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 68 91 75 92 / 0 10 10 10
PARIS 66 90 73 91 / 0 0 0 10
DENTON 69 91 74 93 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 68 89 73 91 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 71 92 77 93 / 0 0 0 10
TERRELL 66 91 73 92 / 0 0 0 10
CORSICANA 67 91 74 92 / 0 10 0 20
TEMPLE 68 92 74 94 / 0 20 10 10
MINERAL WELLS 66 90 72 92 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...DARRAH
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