049
FXUS64 KFWD 121113
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
613 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(MONDAY AND TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
A MERIDIONAL UPPER-AIR PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE CONUS THIS MORNING
AS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF ONCE-ISAIAS PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS
THE DELMARVA AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN.
BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, RIDGING HAS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WITH ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE BRINGING CLEAR SKIES
AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE, 0630Z OBJECTIVE
RAP ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1018MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF,
WHILE AN INVERTED TONGUE OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS ALONG A BAROCLINIC
ZONE DRAPED NORTHEAST FROM COLORADO THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
AS THE APEX OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OUT AND MID-LEVEL FLOW
ASSUMES MORE ZONAL TRAJECTORIES ACROSS THE ROCKIES, RENEWED LEE
CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. AS A RESULT,
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON TUESDAY, WANING OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. 07Z
BUOY OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF HIGHLIGHT A REGION OF MID
TO UPPER-70S DEWPOINTS A FEW HUNDRED MILES OFF THE TEXAS COAST.
RETURN FLOW TRAJECTORIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE
HIGH IN COMBINATION WITH THE MASS RESPONSE TO THE LEE CYCLONE WILL
MANIFEST EFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOW RELATIVELY
MOIST PROFILES IN THE MID-LEVELS AS A WAVE OF ELEVATED MOISTURE
MAKES ITS WAY IN FROM THE PACIFIC, IN ADDITION TO SURFACE
DEWPOINTS HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TO MID-70S THROUGHOUT THE
DIURNAL MIXING CYCLE AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES
FROM THE GULF. ALL OF THIS IS TO SAY THAT TUESDAY IS GOING TO BE
HOT (TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S) AND HUMID. HEAT INDICES WILL
APPROACH AND MAY SURPASS THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP WITHIN A WEAKLY FORCED WAA REGIME
DURING PEAK HEATING BOTH THIS AFTERNOON AND ON TUESDAY. LOW POPS
HAVE BEEN PULLED NORTH TOWARDS THE I-20 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE MOISTURE PROFILES AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
PORTRAYED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS AMIDST WEAK ISENTROPIC ASCENT.
BETTER CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE BRAZOS VALLEY AND
POINTS NORTH ON TUESDAY. ANY THUNDERSHOWERS THAT DO DEVELOP ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN PULSE IN NATURE AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS GIVEN
WEAK FLOW, POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, AND UNIMPRESSIVE SURFACE
T-TD SPREADS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHILE STILL A COMPLICATED FORECAST, THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME
INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL ACCELERATE
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOUR-CORNERS VICINITY. ADEQUATE HEIGHT
FALLS/SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
WITH ANY APPRECIABLE JET STREAK DYNAMICS REMAINING CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE QPF SIGNAL FOLLOWS SUITE,
REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, ADDITIONAL WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY'S HEAT NOW LOOKS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME
LATE WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORCING THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
SOMETIME FRIDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
RATHER DRAMATICALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE'RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH
EARLY THIS WEEK. AS IT STANDS, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 555 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SPORADICALLY DEVELOPING SOUTH AND WEST OF THE
ACT TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS HAVE GRADUALLY
DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST TWO HOURS, SUGGESTING THAT THE HIGHER
COVERAGE SEEN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY MAY TRY TO EXPAND NORTH. HAVE
HELD ON TO THE TEMPO GROUP FROM 12-16Z FOR BKN MVFR CEILINGS. SOME
OF THESE LOW CLOUDS MAY TRY TO GET INTO THE D10 AIRSPACE THIS
MORNING, HOWEVER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCT AT BEST.
OTHERWISE, SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KTS IS EXPECTED AFTER
AROUND 15Z.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR WACO THIS AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY DIRECT TERMINAL IMPACTS IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT
INCLUSION IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WIDESPREAD
REDUCED CEILINGS TOMORROW MORNING, BEGINNING AROUND 08Z AND
LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS 12Z TAF SUITE INTRODUCES
PREVAILING MVFR AT 08Z WITH CIGS DOWN TO 2 KFT. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP TO IFR AT TIMES. REFINEMENTS IN TIMING
AND CEILINGS ARE LIKELY IN SUBSEQUENT CYCLES.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 75 93 76 / 10 0 10 0
WACO 91 74 94 75 / 20 10 10 0
PARIS 90 73 92 74 / 0 0 10 0
DENTON 91 74 94 75 / 10 0 10 0
MCKINNEY 89 72 92 73 / 10 0 10 0
DALLAS 91 76 95 77 / 10 0 10 0
TERRELL 91 73 93 74 / 10 10 10 0
CORSICANA 91 73 93 74 / 20 10 10 0
TEMPLE 92 73 95 74 / 20 10 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 90 72 94 73 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...DORNSIFE
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