425
FXUS64 KFWD 121806
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
106 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
HEAT INDICES APPROACHING 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH BETTER
CHANCES SOUTH OF I-20.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVING FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES IN FOR THE WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IN FULL SWING THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW
AROUND A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PULLS
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE INFLUX. WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX, HIGH TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
UNDERPERFORM EXPECTATIONS IN LOCALIZED SPOTS; HOWEVER, MOST WILL
STILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
TOMORROW'S SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT WITH EVEN HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AREAWIDE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE A 20-30%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL TX EAST
OF I-35, WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WHILE STILL A COMPLICATED FORECAST, THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME
INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MID-TO-LATE WEEK.
ON WEDNESDAY, SOUTHWESTERLY SOUTHERN STREAM FLOW WILL ACCELERATE
AHEAD OF THE CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE IN THE FOUR-CORNERS VICINITY. ADEQUATE HEIGHT
FALLS/SYNOPTIC ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY NORTHWEST OF THE AREA,
WITH ANY APPRECIABLE JET STREAK DYNAMICS REMAINING CONFINED
CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THE QPF SIGNAL FOLLOWS SUITE,
REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THAT BEING
SAID, ADDITIONAL WAA-DRIVEN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH PEAK
HEATING ON WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY'S HEAT NOW LOOKS LIKELY TO LINGER
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES ONCE AGAIN PUSHING THE TRIPLE
DIGIT MARK.
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY A
SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRAPED FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. A SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SOMETIME
LATE WEEK, WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW FORCING THE RESIDUAL
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH AS A COLD FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO OCCUR
SOMETIME FRIDAY, BRINGING PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT AS IT
TRAVERSES THE REGION. IN ITS WAKE, TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF
RATHER DRAMATICALLY COMPARED TO WHAT WE'RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH
EARLY THIS WEEK. AS IT STANDS, HIGHS THIS WEEKEND WILL TOP OUT IN
THE 70S, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 50S.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE BROKEN MVFR DECK OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE METROPLEX. VFR
SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE HOUR AT METROPLEX SITES AND AROUND 20Z AT
KACT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY; GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE RETURNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING. KACT HAS A ~20% CHANCE OF
SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY WON'T IMPROVE TO VFR
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE REGULAR TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 75 93 76 92 / 0 10 0 20
WACO 74 94 75 92 / 10 10 0 30
PARIS 73 92 74 91 / 0 10 0 30
DENTON 74 94 75 92 / 0 10 0 20
MCKINNEY 72 92 73 90 / 0 10 0 20
DALLAS 76 95 77 93 / 0 10 0 20
TERRELL 73 93 74 92 / 10 10 0 30
CORSICANA 73 93 74 91 / 10 10 0 30
TEMPLE 73 95 74 93 / 10 10 0 30
MINERAL WELLS 72 94 73 92 / 0 0 0 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...FENSKE
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