610
FXUS64 KFWD 121918
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
218 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
..NEW LONG TERM
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 100 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
- PARTS OF CENTRAL TX AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAVE DAILY 20-40%
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- A NEARBY WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES TO
WESTERN NORTH TX ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- A COLD FRONT ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS TO BRING
MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS IN FULL SWING THIS AFTERNOON AS FLOW
AROUND A HIGH-PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST PULLS
MOISTURE-RICH AIR INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS. PARTS OF CENTRAL TX
AND THE BRAZOS VALLEY HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF
THIS FAVORABLE MOISTURE INFLUX. WITH LOW CLOUDS STILL PRESENT ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX, HIGH TEMPS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
UNDERPERFORM EXPECTATIONS IN LOCALIZED SPOTS; HOWEVER, MOST WILL
STILL REACH THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S TODAY.
TOMORROW'S SETUP IS VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY, EXCEPT WITH EVEN HIGHER
SURFACE DEWPOINTS, PUSHING AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES TO NEAR 100
DEGREES AREAWIDE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS HAVE A 20-30%
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL TX EAST
OF I-35, WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE.
LONG TERM
(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER HOT, HUMID DAY BY OCTOBER STANDARDS,
WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 90S AND 20-40% AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TX. TO THE NORTHWEST, MEANWHILE, AN
APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE
STORMS ARE LIKELY (50-70% CHANCE) TO REACH OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN
AREAS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY PLACED THE
AXIS OF HIGHEST EXPECTED RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OUR AREA IN THE
ROLLING PLAINS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA, WHERE THE BETTER FORCING WILL
REMAIN. LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO JACKSBORO TO
BRECKENRIDGE LINE HAVE A 2 IN 3 CHANCE OF RECEIVING WETTING RAINFALL
(0.10") FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT THEY ARE UNLIKELY TO RECEIVE MORE THAN
1" EXCEPT IN LOCALIZED AREAS.
AS A PORTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PHASES WITH ANOTHER TROUGH FROM
CANADA AND MOVES OUT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS, A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY EVENING
INTO FRIDAY. AS IT PASSES THROUGH, THE FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP (MAINLY WEST OF I-35) AND BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS. THE NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL ADVECT MUCH COOLER AIR,
CAUSING TEMPS TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S
TO 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT, WITH CENTRAL TX ON THE MILDER END OF THIS TEMP RANGE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON OCT 12 2026
THE BROKEN MVFR DECK OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL TX HAS BEGUN TO SCATTER
OUT FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE METROPLEX. VFR
SHOULD RETURN WITHIN THE HOUR AT METROPLEX SITES AND AROUND 20Z AT
KACT. SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 25 KT WILL CONTINUE TODAY; GUSTS WILL SUBSIDE AFTER SUNSET
BEFORE RETURNING LATE TOMORROW MORNING. KACT HAS A ~20% CHANCE OF
SEEING AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, BUT THE
LOW PROBABILITY PRECLUDES A MENTION IN THE 18Z TAF. MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN TO ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT AND LIKELY WON'T IMPROVE TO VFR
UNTIL NEAR THE END OF THE REGULAR TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 76 93 77 92 / 0 10 0 30
WACO 75 92 76 91 / 10 10 10 40
PARIS 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 30
DENTON 75 93 76 92 / 0 10 10 30
MCKINNEY 73 91 75 90 / 0 10 0 30
DALLAS 77 93 78 93 / 10 10 0 30
TERRELL 74 92 75 91 / 10 10 0 30
CORSICANA 74 91 75 91 / 10 10 0 30
TEMPLE 74 94 75 93 / 10 10 0 40
MINERAL WELLS 72 94 74 92 / 0 10 10 20
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...FENSKE
LONG TERM....FENSKE
AVIATION...FENSKE
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