389
FXUS64 KFWD 131828
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
128 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (20-30%,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL/EAST TX) ARE FORECAST TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-70%) ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN
NORTH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY ALONG WITH NOTABLY COOLER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM TUE OCT 13 2026
A STRONGLY WARM AND MOIST ADVECTIVE REGIME WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED
ACROSS THE STATE OF TEXAS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A COUPLE MORE WARM (HOT?) AND HUMID DAYS ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTED ON SATURDAY AND
HAS STRENGTHENED EACH DAY SINCE THEN, RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MID
70S DEW POINT TEMPERATURES STRETCHING ALL THE WAY FROM THE WESTERN
GULF INTO KANSAS/MISSOURI. THIS PATTERN BETTER RESEMBLES WHAT WE
EXPERIENCE IN SEPTEMBER, BUT HERE WE ARE IN MID OCTOBER WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW 100S. THIS IS ALSO
BRINGING RATHER DENSE MORNING STRATUS TO THE REGION, WHICH WHEN
COMBINED WITH ELEVATED WINDS OVERNIGHT, ARE RESULTING IN VERY WARM
OVERNIGHT LOWS. DFW TIED THEIR WARMEST OCTOBER MORNING LOW RECORD
(77; 2007, 1986X3, 1969) THIS MORNING, WITH A 60% CHANCE THAT THIS
RECORD IS TIED OR BROKEN AGAIN TOMORROW. DAILY WARMEST LOW
TEMPERATURE RECORDS WERE BROKEN AT DFW AND WACO THIS MORNING, AND
SHOULD BE BROKEN AGAIN TOMORROW MORNING AS WELL.
ISOLATED WARM-ADVECTION SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW DIURNALLY-DRIVEN
STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS EAST AND CENTRAL TEXAS BOTH TODAY AND
TOMORROW. NEBULOUS FORCING OVER OUR AREA TODAY SHOULD KEEP THE
COVERAGE AND DURATION OF PRECIP ISOLATED AND BRIEF. THERE SHOULD
BE HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW (BUT STILL ONLY
AS HIGH AS 30-40%) AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH/DRY SLUG ROUNDS THE
BASE OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED TO OUR EAST.
DESPITE THE LOW PRECIP CHANCES FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THERE WILL BE
A RATHER EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH STARTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
AFOREMENTIONED MID-LEVEL HIGH TO OUR EAST SHOULD SHIELD MOST OF
OUR AREA FROM THIS ACTIVITY, WITH ONLY A 20-30% CHANCE OF OUTFLOW-
DRIVEN ACTIVITY MAKING IT INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS OR CROSSING THE
RED RIVER, MAINLY TOMORROW. SOME OF THE ACTIVITY TO OUR WEST AND
NORTH WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE, AND WHILE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SEVERE WEATHER IN OUR AREA, WE WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY OVER-
ACHIEVING COLD POOLS/STRONG WIND GUSTS THAT COULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
OUR FIRST "REAL FALL" COLD FRONT OF THE SEASON IS FORECAST TO RUSH
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. BEFORE THAT THOUGH, THURSDAY WILL BE THE "IN-BETWEEN" DAY
WHERE WE'RE NOT AS WARM AS WE WILL BE TODAY AND TOMORROW, BUT NOT
AS COOL AS WE WILL BE ON FRIDAY. IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID
SINCE WE'LL BE IN THE PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OKLAHOMA AND WEST TEXAS DURING THE DAY THURSDAY, THEN
GET PUSHED SOUTH BY A STRONG HIGH EMERGING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST
ALONG AND BEHIND THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT (I.E.
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH TEXAS). WE MAY HAVE A THIN LINE OF BRIEF
SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG THE ENTIRE COLD FRONT, BUT FROPA WILL BE DRY
FOR A VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS IS LARGELY A
RESULT OF SOUTHERLY INFLOW DRASTICALLY WEAKENING IN CONJUNCTION
WITH A SLUG OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR RESIDING OVER THE REGION
THURSDAY. THIS ONE-TWO PUNCH SHOULD PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
FROM OCCURRING WITH FROPA.
FRIDAY WILL BE A TYPICAL FALL POST-FRONTAL DAY WITH MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS
CALLING FOR HIGHS 15-20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THURSDAY'S VALUES WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH. AS IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, THERE IS A ~50% CHANCE WE WILL
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FRIDAY. IT'S BEEN A WHILE SINCE
WE'VE HAD A WINDY DAY, AND SINCE HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS ARE/WILL
BE OUT, WE WILL START RAMPING UP OUR WIND MESSAGING SO THAT YARD
DECORATIONS AND OTHER LOOSE OBJECTS ARE SECURED BEFORE HEADING TO
BED THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. HURRICANE SIMON'S REMNANTS FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD FINALLY MAKE THEIR WAY OVERTOP OF THE
SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND, LARGELY RESULTING IN AN
INFLUX OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME VIRGA/SPRINKLES. THIS
SHOULD REGULATE HEATING AND KEEP HIGHS IN THE 70S THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A WARM/MOIST ADVECTIVE REGIME IS
FORECAST TO RETURN BY NEXT WEEK.
AS A SIDE NOTE...IF YOU HAVE BEEN KEEPING UP WITH OUR FORECAST
SINCE LAST WEEK, YOU MAY NOTICE THAT RAIN CHANCES WITH THE LATE-
WEEK COLD FRONT HAVE DWINDLED DOWN FOR MOST OF THE AREA AS WE GOT
CLOSER TO FROPA. THERE'S A COUPLE REASONS FOR THAT; 1ST IS THAT
THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE DID NOT HAVE A GREAT HANDLE ON WHAT WOULD
HAPPEN WITH SIMON OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. WE NOW KNOW THAT A
GOOD CHUNK OF MOISTURE FROM SIMON SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE PACIFIC
UNTIL THIS WEEKEND INSTEAD OF ALL OF IT BEING ABSORBED INTO THE
MEAN FLOW EARLY THIS WEEK. 2ND; COARSE GLOBAL GUIDANCE TENDS TO
OVER-FORECAST PRECIP AMOUNTS ALONG FRONTAL SYSTEMS. CRUDELY
SPEAKING AND GROSSLY OVER-SIMPLIFIED, COARSE GUIDANCE TENDS TO
EQUATE THAT HIGH MOISTURE + FRONT = PRECIP...BUT THAT IS NOT
ALWAYS THE CASE. AS WE MOVED INTO THE MEDIUM-RANGE TIME WINDOW,
THE FINER DETAILS SUCH AS THE WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL INFLOW AND THE
SLUG OF DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS CAME INTO FOCUS AND LOWERED OUR
RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT TUE OCT 13 2026
AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF MVFR CEILINGS MOVED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS LAST NIGHT THAT HAS SINCE LIFTED AND SCATTERED INTO A VFR CU
FIELD. ANOTHER MVFR STRATUS SURGE SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
EXPAND ACROSS ALL TAF SITES AROUND/AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE MVFR/STRATUS, WE ARE NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADJUST THE TIMING OF THE CEILINGS, SO WE OPTED
TO SIMPLY PREVAIL ~10 HOURS OF <2 KFT CEILINGS AT ALL TERMINALS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. ALL TAFS REMAIN PRECIP-FREE, ALTHOUGH WE MAY
HAVE TO INTRODUCE A SHRA/TSRA PROB30 AT ACT FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
REGARDING WINDS...WE DID NOT INCLUDE GUSTS IN THE TAFS EVEN THOUGH
THE WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
GUST SPREADS LOOK TO BE AOB 10 KTS (12G20KT TO 16G24KT), WHICH
SHOULD LIMIT THE OPERATIONAL IMPACT OF THE GUSTY WINDS.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 91 76 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
WACO 92 75 92 69 / 10 10 30 0
PARIS 91 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 10
DENTON 91 75 93 70 / 10 10 20 20
MCKINNEY 90 74 91 69 / 10 10 20 10
DALLAS 91 77 93 72 / 10 10 20 10
TERRELL 91 74 91 68 / 10 10 30 0
CORSICANA 90 74 91 69 / 20 10 30 0
TEMPLE 94 74 93 69 / 10 10 30 0
MINERAL WELLS 91 73 93 69 / 10 10 10 30
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNETTE
LONG TERM....BONNETTE
AVIATION...BONNETTE
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