089
FXUS64 KFWD 140723
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
223 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (20-30%,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL/EAST TX) ARE FORECAST TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-80%) ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN
NORTH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH NOTABLY COOLER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WEAK ASCENT AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STREAMER-LIKE SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TX.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED (20-30%).
FARTHER NORTHWEST, A MUCH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME IS
UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST FROM WEST TX INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
NEXT ~48 HOURS. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH TX OR THE BIG COUNTRY
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE (20%) THAT THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS MORE SUGGESTIVE IN A
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT, PROMPTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. IF THIS AREA IS IMPACTED, THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE PROGRESSING FARTHER INTO NORTH TX.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL START TO DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TO ONCE AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(40-80%). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TX ONCE MORE, WHERE A FEW LUCKY
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. FARTHER EAST, LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
THE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15-25
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTS MOSTLY UP TO 30 MPH. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING, LEAVING A MUCH-AWAITED PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S (A FEW LOW 70S),
WITH A RETURN TO THE 70S AREAWIDE SUNDAY. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
MVFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL TX THE PAST COUPLE
OF HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD, EVENTUALLY
IMPACTING ALL TAF SITES LATER THIS MORNING. CIGS UNDER 2000 FT
HAVE FILLED IN NEAR WACO AND ARE PROGGED TO ARRIVE AT THE D10
SITES CLOSER TO 11Z, WITH THE STRATUS DECK EXPECTED TO LIFT AND
SCATTER LATE MORNING/BY MIDDAY.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY OF 11-14 KTS WITH GUSTS
GENERALLY AROUND 20 KTS, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. PEAK GUSTS WILL
BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 94 72 90 63 / 10 10 0 20
WACO 93 69 89 63 / 30 10 0 10
PARIS 93 68 89 62 / 20 20 0 10
DENTON 94 71 90 57 / 10 20 10 40
MCKINNEY 92 70 88 59 / 10 10 0 20
DALLAS 95 72 91 63 / 10 10 0 10
TERRELL 93 69 89 62 / 30 10 0 0
CORSICANA 93 69 89 65 / 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE 95 68 91 64 / 30 10 0 20
MINERAL WELLS 95 69 90 57 / 10 20 20 50
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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