408
FXUS64 KFWD 141054
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 DEGREES WITH LOW STORM CHANCES (20-30%,
MAINLY IN CENTRAL/EAST TX) ARE FORECAST TODAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS (30-80%) ARE FORECAST FOR WESTERN
NORTH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
THROUGH FRIDAY, ALONG WITH NOTABLY COOLER WEEKEND TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR EAST WILL MAINTAIN WARM AND MOIST
ADVECTION ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TX THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH
ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE, WEAK ASCENT AND DAYTIME
HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT STREAMER-LIKE SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS, PRIMARILY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST TX.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF STRONGER FORCING SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE
LIMITED (20-30%).
FARTHER NORTHWEST, A MUCH MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME IS
UNDERWAY AND WILL PERSIST FROM WEST TX INTO OKLAHOMA THROUGH THE
NEXT ~48 HOURS. OUR AREA CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THIS
ACTIVITY EXTENDING INTO WESTERN NORTH TX OR THE BIG COUNTRY
THANKS TO THE SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE; HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL A LOW
CHANCE (20%) THAT THIS ACTIVITY REACHES THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
SOME OF THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE IS MORE SUGGESTIVE IN A
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS REACHING OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT, PROMPTING A SLIGHT INCREASE IN POPS WITH THIS FORECAST
UPDATE. IF THIS AREA IS IMPACTED, THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE BEFORE PROGRESSING FARTHER INTO NORTH TX.
OTHERWISE, ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY IS EXPECTED.
MORNING STRATUS SHOULD SCATTER BY MIDDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUESDAY BUT STILL CLIMBING INTO THE LOW
TO MID 90S AREAWIDE.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
WILL START TO DIMINISH THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE CENTERED TO THE
EAST ON THURSDAY AS IT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST OF
THE DAY SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET AS THE ACTIVITY REMAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST, ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL BE WARM AND HUMID FOR NORTH AND
CENTRAL TX. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR OUR FAR
WESTERN COUNTIES TO ONCE AGAIN SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
(40-80%). THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY CONFINED TO THE BIG
COUNTRY AND WESTERN NORTH TX ONCE MORE, WHERE A FEW LUCKY
LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE MEANINGFUL RAINFALL. FARTHER EAST, LITTLE
OR NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ITSELF,
WITH MOST LOCATIONS LIKELY REMAINING DRY.
THE STRONG FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING/NIGHT,
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND THE GRADUAL ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME NORTHERLY AT 15-25
MPH BEHIND THE FRONT, ALONG WITH GUSTS MOSTLY UP TO 30 MPH. AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY WITH
THE BUILDING SURFACE HIGH, SUSTAINED WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30
MPH WITH PEAK GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH.
COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE. BREEZY WINDS WILL DIMINISH
FRIDAY EVENING, LEAVING A MUCH-AWAITED PLEASANT WEEKEND AHEAD.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S (A FEW LOW 70S),
WITH A RETURN TO THE 70S AREAWIDE SUNDAY. THIS REPRIEVE WILL BE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED AS SOUTHERLY FLOW REESTABLISHES ITSELF AND
TEMPERATURES MODERATE BACK INTO THE 80S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CDT WED OCT 14 2026
A BROKEN STRATUS DECK IS MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS NORTH
AND CENTRAL TX WITH MVFR CIGS IMPACTING MUCH OF THE AREA.
CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND A BIT, MOSTLY BETWEEN 018-025 WITH
BREAKS IN BETWEEN. EXPECT BROKEN MVFR TO PREVAIL AROUND SIMILAR
HEIGHTS THROUGH ~16-17Z BEFORE LIFTING AND SCATTERING, WITH A
TEMPO INCLUDED AT ALL SITES.
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY RANGE FROM 10-13 KTS WITH
DAYTIME GUSTS OF 18-20 KTS, SIMILAR TO TUESDAY. PEAK GUSTS WILL
BECOME LESS FREQUENT BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR EXISTS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE IS
GREATER UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT/COVERAGE AND NO MENTION HAS BEEN
INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 93 72 90 61 / 10 10 0 20
WACO 92 69 89 63 / 30 10 0 20
PARIS 92 69 89 61 / 20 10 0 10
DENTON 93 71 90 56 / 10 20 10 40
MCKINNEY 91 70 88 57 / 10 10 0 20
DALLAS 93 73 91 63 / 10 10 0 10
TERRELL 92 69 89 61 / 30 10 0 10
CORSICANA 91 69 89 64 / 40 10 0 10
TEMPLE 94 69 91 63 / 30 10 10 40
MINERAL WELLS 93 70 91 56 / 10 20 30 60
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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