021
FXUS64 KFWD 151058
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
558 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST FOR
WESTERN NORTH TX THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT THIS EVENING/TONIGHT WILL BRING WINDY
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. PEAK WIND GUSTS TO OF 40 TO 45 MPH ARE
LIKELY MUCH OF THE DAY.
- MUCH COOLER AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO UNFOLD ACROSS WEST
TX AND OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH THE SW FLOW ALOFT, AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TODAY. SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY HAS REACHED PRIMARILY OUR WESTERN RED RIVER COUNTIES
THIS MORNING, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE IMPACTING OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES THROUGH THE MORNING
(40-60%). FOR MOST OF THE AREA, THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL BE QUIET WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SOUTH WINDS 10-15
MPH.
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MUCH OF
THE REGION REMAINING RAIN-FREE DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.
WITH LOW CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT, HIGHS WILL CLIMB INTO THE 80S AND
LOW 90S AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
NORTHWARD WILL POOL ALONG THE FRONT, WHILE DRIER AIR HAS
INFILTRATED THE SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH TX DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES.
RAIN CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST GENERALLY FROM CISCO TO MINERAL
WELLS TO GAINESVILLE (60-80%) WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED HEADING EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THIS IS IN PART DUE TO THE
DRIER AIR, PARTICULARLY IN THE MIDLEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH ELSEWHERE, A QUICK BAND
OF SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE LIFT FROM THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT ANYTHING BEYOND A PERIOD OF BRIEF, LIGHT
RAIN IS UNLIKELY FOR AREAS EAST OF I-35. FOR AREAS IN BETWEEN,
INCLUDING THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN NORTH TX AND ALL OF WESTERN
CENTRAL TX, ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD DECREASE AS THE FRONT APPROACHES, WITH A 30-50% CHANCE OF
SEEING ANY RAIN. ACROSS OUR WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES,
MODEST INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS, BUT THE OVERALL THREAT IS LOW AND SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, AS THE FRONT ENTERS OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, A SHARP NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT IS
ANTICIPATED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 70S AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE 60S FROM THE NW TO THE SE. WINDS WILL INCREASE
TO 15 TO 25 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH GUSTS OF
30-35 MPH THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, THE GUSTIER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY WITH A FEW PEAK GUSTS OF 40-45 MPH. LOWS
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 50S NW TO
LOW 60S SE.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1236 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT, GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS MOSTLY TO 40 MPH, WHILE CONTINUED
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 70S IN THE BRAZOS VALLEY. BE SURE TO
SECURE ANY HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND USE
CAUTION IF DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES ON E-W ROADS.
GUSTY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S AREAWIDE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY SUNDAY,
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE 70S, WITH A RETURN TO LOW 80S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA BY TUESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED TOWARDS A SLOWER RETURN OF MOISTURE INTO MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH THE NBM A FEW DEGREES COOLER MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
HIGHS RETURN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 540 AM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE NEAR TERM IS TO REMOVE THE TEMPO MVFR
FOR ALL D10 SITES BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS, WHILE KEEPING A BRIEF
TEMPO FOR KACT WITH CEILINGS AROUND 2500 FT. SOUTH WINDS 11-15
KTS WILL PREVAIL MUCH OF TODAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT THIS EVENING. LATEST ADJUSTMENTS TO FROPA TIMING PLACE IT
MOVING THROUGH DFW ~00Z AND WACO ~03Z. IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE
FRONT, SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-END VFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED,
WITH CEILINGS LIKELY LOWERING TO MVFR AS THE STRATUS DECK FILLS
IN TONIGHT. CEILINGS OF ~1800-2500 FT ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS
TIME, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENT AND/OR DURATION OF < 2000 FT
CIGS IS TOO LOW TO BREAK OUT IN ANY SPECIFIC TIMEFRAME. CLEARING
WILL OCCUR FROM THE NORTH TO THE SOUTH, AROUND ~10Z FOR DFW SITES
AND LIKELY CLOSER TO 12-13Z FOR WACO.
A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE
GUSTIEST CONDITIONS WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL A FEW HOURS LATER.
INITIAL SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE NEAR 12-15 KTS, THEN INCREASE TO
18-22 KTS, GUSTING TO ~30 KTS. THESE GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN
~04-06Z AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY, WELL BEYOND THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 90 59 65 49 / 20 40 0 0
WACO 89 60 68 49 / 10 30 10 0
PARIS 89 57 65 46 / 0 20 0 0
DENTON 89 54 64 45 / 40 50 0 0
MCKINNEY 88 56 64 44 / 10 40 0 0
DALLAS 91 60 67 49 / 10 40 0 0
TERRELL 89 58 66 47 / 10 20 0 0
CORSICANA 89 60 67 48 / 0 20 0 0
TEMPLE 90 61 70 48 / 0 40 10 0
MINERAL WELLS 89 55 64 43 / 50 60 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...GORDON
LONG TERM....GORDON
AVIATION...GORDON
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