735
FXUS64 KFWD 160008
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
708 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- A COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRONG WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY MORE
ROBUST STORM IN NW NORTH TEXAS.
- STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 MPH ARE
EXPECTED MUCH OF FRIDAY. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
- MUCH COOLER AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
ONE LAST DAY OF UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION AHEAD OF OUR FIRST TRUE FALL COLD FRONT. AS OF
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THE FRONT REMAINS TO OUR NORTHWEST, WHERE A
MINUTE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS IS AIDING IN CONTINUED
SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY. A DIGGING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
CATALYST FOR THE FRONT TO FINALLY PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FROPA EXPECTED IN OUR
NORTHWEST AROUND 2-3 PM.
LIFT FROM THE FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS AREA HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE TO OBSERVE
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH PWATS AROUND 2", WITH MOST LIKELY
RAINFALL TOTALS BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES AND ISOLATED AMOUNTS CLOSER TO
AROUND 4 INCHES. A FEW INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IN THIS AREA
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING, SO HAVE ISSUED A FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 1 AM
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, THE OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT IS FAIRLY LOW, BUT WE CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH ANY MORE ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR BOWING SEGMENTS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT, USHERING
IN COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 15-25 MPH (GUSTS UP
TO 30-35 MPH.) AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH, COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OF THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LESSEN AS THEY APPROACH
AND PASS THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS THANKS TO A SLUG
OF DRIER AIR THAT PUSHED INTO THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE REGION EARLIER TODAY, AS WELL AS THE SOURCE OF LIFT REMAINING
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER, ENOUGH MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN POOLED TO PROMOTE CONTINUED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
COUPLE STORMS NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRIDAY. ANY
LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY MORNING, LEAVING
BEHIND MUCH COOLER AND WINDIER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY, WITH PEAK SPEEDS 20-30 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH LIKELY TO OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. A WIND
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS FROM 4
AM TO 7 PM TOMORROW. MAKE SURE TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR
DECOR/FURNITURE AND TO TAKE CAUTION WHEN DRIVING ON W-E ORIENTED
ROADS.
ASIDE FROM THE WINDY CONDITIONS, FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
DAYS PREVIOUS AS STRONG CAA OVERSPREADS THE REGION. EXPECT
AFTERNOON HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE 60S, WITH SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL
TEXAS HITTING 70 DEGREES. THIS IS ABOUT 15-25 DEGREES COOLER THAN
THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FORECAST FOR TODAY!
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 142 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
OUR FALL-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND ON
SATURDAY, THOUGH WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE MODEST AS THE SURFACE
GRADIENT RELAXES AHEAD OF THE INCOMING POST-FRONTAL SURFACE HIGH.
EXPECT MORNING LOWS IN THE 40S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 60S. WINDS WILL BECOME EVEN LIGHTER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OVERTOP THE REGION. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES A BIT ON SUNDAY MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE BETTER
RADIATIONAL COOLING POTENTIAL, SO MORNING LOWS MAY DIP INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. UNFORTUNATELY, THIS WILL NOT LAST AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEGINS TO EXPAND
ACROSS MEXICO AND THE GULF, PROMOTING A WARMING TREND BACK INTO
THE 80S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT THU OCT 15 2026
A WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY, SPAWNED BY EARLIER CONVECTION
OVER SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS, WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF D10 BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z. GUSTY NORTH
WINDS AT SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 12 TO 20 KNOTS WILL IMPACT ALL DFW-
AREA TAFS IN ITS WAKE. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT, EXTENDING FROM KADM
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KDCU TO KSEP, WILL MOVE RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD
AND TRANSIT D10 BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z. THE PRE-EXISTING NORTH WINDS
OVER THE AREA WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO SPEEDS AVERAGING 20 TO 30
KNOTS BY 06Z, GUSTING AT TIMES IN EXCESS OF 30 KNOTS. THESE
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS D10 THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY,
BEFORE DIMINISHING.
ACCOMPANYING THE ARRIVAL OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BE A WIDE
EASTWARD MOVING BAND OF SHOWERS AND STRATIFORM RAIN, WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD.
SURFACE AND MIXED-LAYER INSTABILITY DROPS OFF MARKEDLY FROM THE
I-35 CORRIDOR EASTWARD, AND THE REMNANT THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF DFW
AT 00Z SHOULD LARGELY DISSIPATE AS THEY REACH THE MIDDLE OF D10 BY
01-02Z. THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT AT DFW, BUT CONFIDENCE IN ITS
OCCURENCE IS SUFFICIENTLY LOW TO JUSTIFY ONLY VCTS MENTION FROM
00Z TO 02Z. FARTHER EAST, DALLAS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STABLE TO
PRECLUDE ANY THUNDER MENTION THIS EVENING. THAT SAID, ALL DFW TAF
SITES ARE LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF -SHRA AS THE AXIS OF
RAINFALL SLIDES INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY MID EVENING.
CEILINGS IN THE DFW AREA WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE FROM VFR
CONDITIONS TO MVFR AS THE RAIN SHIELD BUILDS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING. POST-FRONTAL CLOUD CONDITIONS ON THE ORDER OF OVC020-025
SHOULD REMAIN THE RULE ACROSS D10 OVERNIGHT THROUGH ROUGHLY 14Z
FRIDAY. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH AFTER DAYBREAK FRIDAY, ALLOWING CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE TOWARD MIDDAY. MVFR AND LOW VFR CEILINGS IN THE DFW AREA
WILL GIVE AWAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY 18-20Z.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 64 48 65 / 50 0 0 0
WACO 60 67 48 67 / 40 0 0 0
PARIS 56 64 45 66 / 30 10 0 0
DENTON 52 62 44 64 / 60 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 54 63 45 65 / 50 0 0 0
DALLAS 57 65 48 67 / 40 10 0 0
TERRELL 57 65 46 66 / 20 10 0 0
CORSICANA 59 66 47 67 / 30 10 0 0
TEMPLE 59 68 47 68 / 40 10 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 52 62 43 63 / 80 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091-100-101-115-116-129.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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