617
FXUS64 KFWD 161051
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
551 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG POST-FRONTAL WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED
MUCH OF FRIDAY. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.
- MUCH COOLER AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS
ALMOST CLEARED OUR CWA WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT
RAIN CONTINUING. A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN EXTENDS BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM COMANCHE NORTHEAST INTO THE METROPLEX AND THEN UP TO THE RED
RIVER, HOWEVER LITTLE ADDITIONAL PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST IS
EXPECTED. WE'LL LIKELY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS CENTRAL TX INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT LAGS A BIT AND IS GENERALLY SPREADING
SOUTH OUT OF OKLAHOMA AT THIS HOUR WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
UPPER 50S.
WHILE MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS STILL PRESENT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT THIS TIME, THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE
TO PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THIS WILL ALLOW STRONG ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE TO COMMENCE IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO ERODE THE REMAINING
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID MORNING. THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WILL BE THE STRONG POST FRONTAL
WINDS AS A 1040MB SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. STRONG
GRADIENT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 15-20 KT, BUT AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES, 45-55 KT WINDS
ABOVE THE SURFACE WILL BEGIN TO MIX DOWN. THIS WILL PARTICULARLY
BE THE CASE ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE ERODING CLOUD DECK WHERE
LOCALLY DEEPER MIXING OCCURS AS THE SUN PEEKS THROUGH. HIGH END
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE AT OR ABOVE
50 MPH IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME THIS EVENING, BUT A FAIRLY STRONG
GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT RESULTING IN A
BREEZY FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE
REGION EARLY SATURDAY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING FURTHER UNDER SUNNY
SKIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AFTER
STARTING OUT IN THE 40S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
THE NICE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE AND SUBTLE MID LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDS THROUGH THE PLAINS. WE'LL START OFF SUNDAY MORNING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 60S BY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB THROUGH THE WEEK INTO
THE MID 70S AND LOWER 80S BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A PRONOUNCED
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE WEST COAST DURING THIS TIME WITH
MID LEVEL RIDGING IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS. WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS, BUT WE'LL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
BACK IN THE UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK.
DUNN
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 548 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING AND WE'RE ALREADY SEEING CEILINGS LIFT AND
ERODE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. WE'LL START THE TAFS OFF WITH
BKN/OVC050 AND MAINTAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NORTH WINDS
GUSTING ABOVE 35 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF SOME WRAP
AROUND CLOUDS TRYING TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH LATER
TONIGHT, BUT WE'LL HOLD OFF ON ANY CIGS IN THE LATEST TAF. VFR
WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 64 48 65 47 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 67 48 66 45 / 20 0 0 0
PARIS 65 45 66 42 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 63 45 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 64 45 65 42 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 66 48 66 46 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 66 47 66 44 / 10 0 0 0
CORSICANA 67 48 66 45 / 20 0 0 0
TEMPLE 68 48 68 44 / 20 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 62 43 63 39 / 10 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page