154
FXUS64 KFWD 162353
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
653 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOLER AND QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 40S.
- QUIET CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING BACK TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
SKIES CONTINUE TO SCATTER OUT FROM THE NORTHWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE DRIER CONTINENTAL AIRMASS PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
SOME UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ORIGINS FROM THE SIERRA MADRE WILL
PERSIST WITHIN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AS A CUTOFF LOW
RETROGRADES THROUGH BAJA CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY,
AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
WILL PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN CONUS WHILE RIDGING
BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. AT THE SURFACE LOCALLY, THE COLD FRONT HAS
CLEARED THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA, WITH A STRONG COLD-
CORE HIGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS SENDING COOL DRY AIR THROUGH NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS.
THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY TODAY IS THE GUSTY WINDS. 1700Z RAP
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A CLOSED 1042MB CONTOUR AT THE CENTER OF
THE SURFACE HIGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO EXPAND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THE TIGHTENED POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SUSTAINED 30MPH WINDS, GUSTING TO 50MPH AT TIMES AS DIURNAL
MIXING DEEPENS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO ~850MB AND TRANSPORTS SOME OF
THAT 850 MOMENTUM DOWN TO THE SURFACE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT THROUGH 7PM THIS EVENING. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT UNTIL THE HIGH MAKES ENOUGH
SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESS TO RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOCALLY.
CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL OFFSET A GOOD PORTION OF TODAY'S
DIABATIC HEATING, RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE 60S AREA-WIDE. WHILE
WINDS UP TO 20MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, CLEARING
SKIES AMIDST DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST WE'VE SEEN SINCE LATE
APRIL, DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE COLUMN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST, WITH
NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS POSITIONED BENEATH THROUGH SUNDAY (AND
BEYOND). THE ACCOMPANYING CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN, WITH
TOMORROW'S HIGHS PEAKING IN THE 60S AND SUNDAY'S HIGHS APPROACHING
70F. LOWS WILL MIMIC THAT OF TONIGHT, THOUGH A FEW LOCATIONS WEST
OF U.S. 281 MAY SEE TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE UPPER-30S SATURDAY
NIGHT. NORTHERLY WINDS ON SATURDAY WILL BECOME EASTERLY ON SUNDAY
(SPEEDS AROUND 10MPH) AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE HIGH BUILDS UPSTREAM
OF THE MID/UPPER SHORTWAVE DEPARTING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1258 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
CURRENT INDICATIONS AMONGST THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE ARE THAT A SUBTLY
PROGRESSIVE OMEGA BLOCK WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE WORKWEEK,
WITH THE FLANKING LOWS STRADDLING THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. AS THE EASTERN
CONUS SHORTWAVE CUTS OFF FROM THE PRIMARY BRANCH OF THE POLAR JET
AND AN INCOMING TROUGH AMPLIFIES OFF THE WEST COAST. CENTRAL CONUS
RIDGING WILL REMAIN ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AMONGST ASSOCIATED SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE. TEMPERATURES WILL STEADILY CLIMB TOWARDS THE MID-80S BY
THURSDAY AS THE POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS MODIFIES AND ESE SURFACE FLOW
RETURNS. WITH THE RECENT COLD FRONTAL INTRUSION WELL INTO THE GULF,
MOISTURE RETURN WILL BE LIMITED, COMPOUNDED BY RETURN TRAJECTORIES
TAKING THE MODEST DEWPOINTS WEST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
"HIGH AND DRY" IS THE COLLOQUIAL PHRASE BEING SAID AROUND THE
OFFICE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS THAT WERE FELT AT ALL THE TERMINALS TODAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF, WITH 10-15KT WINDSPEEDS AND 15-20KT GUSTS
EXPECTED. BREEZY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE NO CHANCES FOR ANY PRECIP THIS TAF CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 48 65 48 69 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 49 66 45 70 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 45 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 44 64 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 44 65 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 48 66 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 46 67 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 48 66 46 69 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 48 66 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 42 62 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DORNSIFE
LONG TERM....DORNSIFE
AVIATION...STALLEY/DAVIS
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