838
FXUS64 KFWD 180435
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1135 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- COOL AND QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
NORTH TEXAS REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS EVENING. LIGHT NORTH
WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD, OUR WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. LATEST SATELLITE
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA OF UPPER
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF MEXICO AND TEXAS TONIGHT.
THIS APPEARS TO BE AT LEAST LOOSELY TIED TO HURRICANE TRUDY OFF
THE COAST OF CENTRAL MEXICO, ALTHOUGH LITTLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
APPEARS TO HANDLE THE QUANTITY OF MOISTURE. UPPER TROUGHING OVER
NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ALSO LIKELY FOR SOME WEAK ASCENT
SPREADING THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO WEST TEXAS. WHILE
WE'RE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION, WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
OVERALL CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY IF SATELLITE/WATER
VAPOR TRENDS PERSIST. FOR NOW, WE'LL MAINTAIN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 70S THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL EJECT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY. FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE WILL LARGELY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, BUT WE SHOULD SEE
AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY AS HIGHS CLIMB
TO NEAR SEASONAL NORMS IN THE UPPER 70S.
DUNN
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OFF THE WEST COAST AND
EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
MID LEVEL RIDING TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE PLAINS RESULTING IN
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL CLIMB
INTO THE 80S BY WEDNESDAY WITH MID/UPPER 80S EXPECTED THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH OPENING UP AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON FRIDAY. WHILE THE
STRONGEST FORCING WILL REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, A WEAK FRONT MAY SLIDE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS AND BRING SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES BY
THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEKEND.
DUNN
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL UNDER INTERMITTENT HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY LATER THIS MORNING
AROUND 5 KT. NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
DUNN
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 49 73 52 77 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 46 72 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 44 72 47 77 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 43 70 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 44 72 48 77 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 49 74 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 46 74 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 47 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 46 73 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 41 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
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