761
FXUS64 KFWD 200557
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH STEADILY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TRANQUIL WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK,
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUES BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE EACH DAY AS SUBSIDENCE
PERSISTS, HOWEVER EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER MIDWEEK WILL KEEP THE
WARMING TREND A BIT MORE GRADUAL. AFTERNOON HIGHS TODAY AND
TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 50S.
THERE LOOKS TO BE A MINUTE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL ROUND THE APEX OF
THE RIDGE OVER OKLAOMA-NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT
WILL LIKELY ONLY PRODUCE SOME PASSING CLOUDS IN NORTH TEXAS.
LONG TERM
(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
QUIET AND MILD WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND,
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS PLANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO CONTINUE TO PEAK IN THE MID-UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
EACH AFTERNOON. OVER THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, A DEEPENING
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
MINUTE SHORTWAVES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND BECOME
ENVELOPED IN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM, BUT WILL REMAIN
DISPLACED TO OUR NORTHWEST, KEEPING THINGS STATUS QUO. HOWEVER,
TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, THE LAGGING SOUTHERN
STREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST, WITH
AMPLE MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING IN WEST TEXAS. ANY RAIN CHANCES
DURING THIS TIME ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUTSIDE OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS.
BECAUSE OF THE EASTWARD TRAJECTORY OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH,
THE RESIDENT RIDGE WILL BECOME FLATTENED AND DISPLACED TOWARDS
THE GULF STATES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE FOR
RETURNING RAIN CHANCES AND PERHAPS A FRONTAL INTRUSION SOMETIME
NEXT WEEK, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY FOR ANY SPECIFIC DETAILS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1257 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
TRANQUIL FLYING WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT 24-30 HOURS. EXPECT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS AOB 7
KT TO GENERALLY PREVAIL, THOUGH THERE MAY BE OCCASIONAL PERIODS
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. WITH VFR CONTINUING, THERE ARE NO
OPERATIONAL IMPACTS EXPECTED WITH THIS TAF CYCLE.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 80 56 81 57 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 80 52 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 78 50 79 50 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 79 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 78 52 79 54 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 81 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 79 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 79 52 80 53 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 82 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 79 53 80 54 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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