067
FXUS64 KFWD 201709
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1209 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH STEADILY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
CALM AND QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINANT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS, EXTENDING THIS STREAK OF PLEASANT AND DRY FALL
WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM UP DAY BY DAY, WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING IN THE UPPER 50S. WEDNESDAY ONWARD, EXPECT HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S, WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS AND SOME CIRRUS DEVELOPMENT
KEEPING TEMPERATURES MODERATE AND SEASONABLE. THERE ARE NO CHANCES
FOR ANY RAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
THIS QUIET RIDGING PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
SEASONABLE WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. BY
SATURDAY, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
SEND SHORTWAVES ALONG THE FLOW PATTERN, SHUNTING NORTHEAST BETWEEN
THE DEVELOPING TROUGH TO THE WEST AND THE STRONG RIDGE OVERHEAD.
THE MAJORITY OF ANY SHORTWAVE DRIVEN ASCENT SHOULD STAY OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP POP'S VERY LOW TO NIL (AROUND 10% FOR
NW NORTH TEXAS). CIRRUS AND UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT AS A
RESULT OF THE INTENSIFYING TROUGH AND PROPAGATING SHORTWAVES WILL
DAMPEN OUR WARMING TREND SLIGHTLY, WITH MAX TEMPERATURES BREAKING
INTO THE LOW 80S EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION TO SEASONAL
TEMPS, THE SKIN-CRACKINGLY DRY AIR SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME
IMPROVEMENT, WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING SOME MOISTURE RETURN
BACK TO THE AREA.
BY NEXT MONDAY, LONG-RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHIFTING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST, FLATTENING OUR CURRENT RIDGE
PATTERN. TO THE WEST, LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS HAS BEGUN TO SIGNAL A
DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT WILL
START TO INTENSIFY AND SWING SOUTH. WITH THE PREDOMINANT RIDGE
FLATTENED AND WEAKENED, RETURNING RAIN CHANCES ARE ON THE TABLE
FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY MID-WEEK AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS.
SOME OF THE GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, AS WELL AS THE GFS, ARE
BEGINNING TO RESOLVE A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BY THE END OF THIS
EXTENDED PERIOD (TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK), BUT TIMING,
INTENSITY, AND COVERAGE OF ANY RAIN & STORM CHANCES REMAIN
UNCERTAIN.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT TUE OCT 20 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL STAY E-ESE WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 7 KTS. FROM
06Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY, THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR VRB WINDS AT
ALL TERMINALS, BUT WITH THE VERY CALM WINDS, NO OPERATIONAL
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 56 81 57 83 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 52 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 50 79 50 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 51 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 52 79 54 82 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 57 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 52 80 53 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 52 80 53 81 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 52 83 54 84 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 53 80 54 81 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DAVIS
LONG TERM....DAVIS
AVIATION...DAVIS
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