226
FXUS64 KFWD 210519
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1219 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK, WITH STEADILY
WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST THE REST OF THIS WEEK AS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS REMAIN PLANTED UNDERNEATH AN UPPER RIDGE AND ITS
SUBSIDENT AIRMASS. PERSISTENTLY E-ESE WINDS AND RESULTANT UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL TEMPER THE EXPECTED WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS PRIMARILY
IN THE 50S THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. OVER LATE WEEK, A CLOSED
UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS, BECOMING
ENVELOPED WITHIN THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM FLOW. THE
LAGGING SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WHICH WILL PLAY MORE OF
A ROLE IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION BELOW.
LONG TERM
(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE LAGGING SOUTHWESTERN
SHORTWAVE WILL MEANDER TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS, EVENTUALLY
BECOMING ENVELOPED WITHIN A LARGER DIGGING TROUGH AS IT MOVES EAST
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. IN RESPONSE, INCREASED MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL SPREAD ACROSS WEST TEXAS, LEADING TO RETURNING RAIN
CHANCES TO OUR WEST. THIS UPPER-LEVEL MOVEMENT WILL SHUNT THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE FURTHER EAST AND SOUTH, SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A PATTERN SHIFT. AS THE MAIN TROUGH PUSHES EAST, MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES ARE EXPECTED TO ROUND THE BASE AND MOVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS, PROMOTING BOTH A FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE RETURN OF RAIN
CHANCES DURING FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE FROPA BETWEEN SOMEWHERE AROUND LATE
MONDAY OR TUESDAY, BUT EXACT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR
OUT. CONTINUE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS WEEK AS MORE REFINED DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER CLOSER IN
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT WED OCT 21 2026
LIGHT E-ESE (OCCASIONALLY VARIABLE) WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. EXPECT VFR TO PERSIST, WITH
ONLY OCCASIONAL MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. NO AVIATION IMPACTS
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 81 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 81 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 80 53 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 81 54 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 80 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 82 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 81 54 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 81 55 82 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 83 55 84 55 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 81 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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