983
FXUS64 KFWD 220630
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
130 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
- A PATTERN SHIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, WHICH
MAY RESULT IN COOLER CONDITIONS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
THE SHORT TERM IS VERY RINSE-WASH-REPEAT, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. EAST TO SOUTHEAST LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS, KEEPING OUR TEMPERATURES QUITE MODERATE WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND HIGHS IN THE 80S. A CLOSED LOW
SPINNING OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE ONSHORE,
WITH BROAD-SCALE TROUGHING BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS TO KICK OFF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR OUR
EARLY NEXT WEEK PATTERN SHIFT AS THE MOVEMENT OF THE TROUGH WILL
DISPLACE THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FURTHER EAST INTO THE GULF
STATES. OVERALL, LARGELY A TRANQUIL AND SIMPLE WAY TO EASE INTO
THE LAST WEEK AND A HALF OF OCTOBER.
LONG TERM
(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
WHILE THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE BROAD TROUGH WILL BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST, A LAGGING UPPER LOW WILL
MEANDER TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AMPLE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL BEGIN ACROSS WEST TEXAS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE, LEADING TO INCREASING RAIN CHANCES.
UNFORTUNATELY FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISPLACED TO OUR WEST, LEAVING THE WEEKEND
FORECAST DRY. WE MAY OBSERVE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES OUT WEST IN THE BIG COUNTRY THANKS TO
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME, BUT THIS IS LARGELY A
NOTHING- BURGER AT THIS TIME.
THE UPPER LOW WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME INFLUENCED BY ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES, AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY FLATTEN THE RIDGE
AND SHUNT IT EVEN FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE GULF. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TOWARDS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES,
OVERSPREADING MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE ATOP NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER WOULD AID IN KEEPING
CONDITIONS A FEW DEGREES COOLER AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK.
THE MOVEMENT OF THE DISTURBANCE WOULD ALSO WELCOME THE RETURNING
POTENTIAL FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION. LATEST
GUIDANCE KEEPS BETTER MOISTURE GENERALLY NEAR THE BIG COUNTRY AND
OUT TOWARDS WEST TEXAS, WHICH WOULD CONFINE ANY ACCOMPANYING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THOSE AREAS.
ON TOP OF THE SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS, THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL
FOR A COLD FRONT TO PUSH TOWARDS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS EARLY-
MID WEEK. WHILE SLIGHTLY UNDER 50% OF THIS MORNING'S 12Z ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS HAD A DEEPER DISTURBANCE AND FROPA PUSHING COMPLETELY
THROUGH ON TUESDAY, THE REST WERE A BIT LAGGING AND WEAKER/NON-
EXISTENT IN SIGNAL. THIS IS WHERE THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS LOOKING A BIT MORE BEARISH WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE LATEST 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF
ESSENTIALLY NIX ANY FROPA. WE'LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE 00Z
ENSEMBLES AS THEY COME IN OVERNIGHT TO SEE IF THERE IS ANY MORE
BACKING OFF. ALL THIS BEING SAID, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF FROPA AS WELL AS
THE MAGNITUDE AND LOCATION OF ANY RAIN CHANCES THIS FAR OUT IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONTINUE TO KEEP UPDATED WITH THE FORECAST
AND MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS WILL BECOME CLEARER AS WE GET CLOSER IN
TIME.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
LIGHT EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WITH SPEEDS AOB 5-6 KT WILL
PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS. THROUGH
MID- MORNING (GENERALLY AROUND 15Z), WINDS MAY BECOME CALM OR
VARIABLE IN DIRECTION, THOUGH SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY FLOW CHANGE OR TERMINAL IMPACT. OCCASIONAL HIGH-BASED
CIRRUS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD. NO IMPACTS TO THE AIRPORTS ARE
ANTICIPATED.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 57 84 59 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 84 57 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 83 52 83 54 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 83 52 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 83 54 83 57 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 85 58 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 84 52 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 83 55 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 86 57 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 56 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...PRATER
LONG TERM....PRATER
AVIATION...PRATER
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