386
FXUS64 KFWD 230540
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1240 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGING CHARACTERIZED BY A 590 DAM
500MB RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN EXTENDED FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS
WILL RESULT IN PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 60S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ESSENTIALLY ZERO RAIN CHANCES LOCALLY. LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAINTAIN
A FAIRLY PLEASANT FEEL THOUGH, AS DEWPOINTS HOVER IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST, WHILE SOME CIRRUS OCCASIONALLY
PASSES OVERHEAD ASSOCIATED WITH FOUR CORNERS TROUGHING.
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
PERSISTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE THE EJECTIONS OF MULTIPLE SHORTWAVES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS GRADUALLY ERODES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AXIS.
THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASED ASCENT ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND THE
BIG COUNTRY WHILE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN OCCURS, WHICH COULD
ALLOW FOR LOW RAIN CHANCES ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES LATE MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. A SMALL INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS IMPINGING TROUGHING COULD SHAVE A COUPLE DEGREES OFF OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK, BUT
HIGHS WILL REMAIN SOUNDLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S. RICHER MOISTURE RETURN LOOKS TO OCCUR MID TO LATE WEEK AHEAD
OF A DEEPER CENTRAL PLAINS TROUGH AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
SHIFT. THIS TIME FRAME (CURRENTLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY) SHOULD OFFER
THE NEXT NOTEWORTHY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA WHICH MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FRONTAL INTRUSION
AS WELL.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2026
VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS OF
5-8 KT. SCT CIRRUS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CLOUD COVER THROUGH
TODAY.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 83 60 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 85 57 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 84 53 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 83 58 83 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 83 57 83 56 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 84 61 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 85 56 84 56 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 83 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 85 57 86 57 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 57 84 57 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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