990
FXUS64 KFWD 231841
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
141 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
..NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
WARM, DRY AND BENIGN FALL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY, AS A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WHILE NARROW LONGITUDINALLY, THIS RIDGE IS ACTUALLY STRONG
BY LATE OCTOBER STANDARDS, WITH 500 MB GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS AND
TEMPERATURES BOTH PUSHING THE 95TH PERCENTILE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOR
THIS DATE. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THIS RIDGE, ASSISTED TO SOME DEGREE
BY THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR, WILL PROMOTE UNSEASONABLY WARM
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
BOTH TODAY AND SATURDAY. THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DIP BACK INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS
SATURDAY MORNING. APART FROM A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SPILLING OVER THE
RIDGE, SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.
BRADSHAW
LONG TERM
(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
THE PRONOUNCED UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD AND DEAMPLIFY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH BROAD
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS IN ITS
WAKE. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT FROM THE ROCKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOISTURE AND FORCING
FOR ASCENT WILL INITIALLY BE SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS BY LATE
MONDAY. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, HOWEVER, THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME DAMPED OUT AS IT
TRANSITS NORTH TEXAS. THE RESULTANT REDUCTION IN FORCING SHOULD
GREATLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES ACROSS
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, THE NBM MAINTAINS LOW END POPS
FOR OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES WEST OF US-281 ON TUESDAY, WHILE
KEEPING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE AREA TO THE EAST. SIGNIFICANT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STREAMING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
EJECTING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP SHAVE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES
DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, WITH UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S THE DAILY RULE.
A QUASI-ZONAL TO BROAD NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME WILL EVOLVE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IN THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. SOME
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE SUGGESTING THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT IN
NORTH TEXAS BY LATE THURSDAY, THOUGH THE CONSENSUS SEEMS TO KEEP
THE BOUNDARY NORTH OF THE RED RIVER THROUGH THE PERIOD. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT, A MILDER EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE PATTERN WILL
DEVELOP, WITH SUBSTANTIAL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
DEPICT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
BRADSHAW
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 129 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD, AS A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REGION. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WIND WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, BECOMING LIGHT
AND GENERALLY FROM AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION AFTER 06Z.
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL RESUME AFTER 14Z SATURDAY, AT SPEEDS
AVERAGING 5 TO 8 KNOTS.
BRADSHAW
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 60 85 62 81 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 56 85 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 55 85 56 81 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 57 84 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 57 84 59 81 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 60 86 63 82 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 56 85 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 56 85 58 80 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 57 87 60 82 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 57 83 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BRADSHAW
LONG TERM....BRADSHAW
AVIATION...BRADSHAW
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