220
FXUS64 KFWD 241023
AFDFWD
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
- QUIET WEATHER AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
- A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY LATE NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND AT LEAST LOW RAIN
CHANCES.
SHORT TERM
(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
UNSEASONABLY WARM AND RAIN-FREE WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HEIGHTS REMAIN ANCHORED OVERHEAD.
THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE CWA,
INFLUENCED BY DEEP FOUR CORNERS TROUGHING THAT HAS BROUGHT
NUMEROUS DAYS OF RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF AZ/NM. A CIRRUS PLUME
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL MAKE A STEADY EASTWARD EXPANSION
LATER THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN CLOUDIER SKIES WHICH MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY.
HIGHS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, MAINLY IN THE 80S. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND MODEST HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN A PLEASANT WEEKEND OF WEATHER
OVERALL FOR OUTDOOR EVENTS.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 1244 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
BY MONDAY, THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY BE ERODED BY A SERIES OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVES RIPPLING THROUGH DEEP WESTERN CONUS TROUGHING. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER MOISTURE CONTENT TO RETURN TO THE AREA
DURING THE PROCEEDING COUPLE OF DAYS, WHILE SHORTWAVE ASCENT
SUPPORTS DISORGANIZED SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WEST TEXAS AND THE BIG COUNTRY. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE ABLE
TO ENCROACH ON OUR WESTERN ZONES ON TUESDAY WHERE LOW POPS WILL
BE ADVERTISED. OTHERWISE, THE BREAKDOWN OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALONG
WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
CLOSER TO NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.
THERE IS STILL A LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE LATE
WEEK FORECAST AND THE EXPECTED PATTERN SHIFT, AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON THE EXTENDED FORECAST
FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
SHOULD BECOME QUITE A BIT MORE ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE, WHILE A
WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL LOCALLY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WORKWEEK. THIS WILL FAVOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH BEFORE RAIN CHANCES AND
A FRONTAL PASSAGE CAN OCCUR LIKELY IN THE DAY 7-9 TIME FRAME.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 522 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH PASSING CIRRUS
AT FL250. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10 KT.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DALLAS-FT. WORTH 84 62 81 59 / 0 0 0 0
WACO 84 58 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
PARIS 85 56 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
DENTON 84 58 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
MCKINNEY 84 58 81 55 / 0 0 0 0
DALLAS 86 62 82 59 / 0 0 0 0
TERRELL 85 57 81 54 / 0 0 0 0
CORSICANA 84 58 80 55 / 0 0 0 0
TEMPLE 86 59 82 54 / 0 0 0 0
MINERAL WELLS 83 60 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...STALLEY
LONG TERM....STALLEY
AVIATION...STALLEY
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